OddsShopper
ArticlesVideosExpert PicksPromotions
HomeFree ToolsPremium ToolsOffersAccount
Categories PGA

2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba First Round Leader Picks: Russell Henley and Joel Dahmen Off to a Hot Start?

The PGA TOUR is in Mexico this week for the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. The event is played at El Camaleon, a Greg Norman-designed course that plays as a par 71 at around 7,021 yards. This week is resort-style golf once again, albeit with a few different quirks than what we saw last week in Bermuda. The wind likely won’t be as bad, but the course will also likely be slightly more challenging as players will need to be accurate off the tee in Mayakoba to avoid some serious trouble. Great iron players and accurate drivers need to be given the heaviest weighting, although if it gets windy, elite scramblers could push to the forefront as well.

This is a full-field event and with a seaside course in play, it is important that we pay attention to the weather. The rain forecast has cleared up somewhat for this week but Thursday is still expected to see some rain. Thunderstorms could potentially cause some delays and push the late wave into Friday. As of now, the wind is scheduled to be much calmer in the mornings (by about five mph) so aiming at early-wave players here makes sense. We’ve also seen six of the last nine years produce first-round leaders that came from the morning wave, either exclusively or in a share of the lead. It’s been the more popular wave by far for this betting market and that’s not shocking, as afternoon winds on a seaside course tend to be more volatile.

With the picks, we’ve employed the OddsShopper golf betting tools below and tried to target the best values and potential upside plays for our first-round leader plays. This will be a low-scoring week so birdie rate, iron play and overall recent form will all be factored in.

2022 World Wide Technology Championship First Round Leader Bets

Best First Round Leader Betting Picks

Russell Henley First Round Leader +5500 | BetMGM

Targeting Russell Henley this week in the first-round leader market makes a ton of sense. The American is hyper-accurate off the tee and one of the most elite iron players in the world when he’s in form. Henley’s fall hasn’t been a strong one as he has just a missed cut and a 45th placing at the CJ Cup two weeks ago to show for it. While it may be too big an ask for Henley to put together four solid rounds at the moment, he’s always capable of popping up for a big round and has typically been one of the most reliable in terms of fast starts. He ranked fourth last year in first-round scoring average and in long-term form, he ranks first in proximity from 125-to-150 yards. Henley is a great first-round bet at these prices and a player we should be expecting to see at least one low round from this week.

If looking to make a wager on BetMGM this week, then Henley is a first-round leader target to consider at that sportsbook. He has solid 55-1 odds there (bigger odds than other places), and new BetMGM users get a risk-free bet up to $1,000!

Joel Dahmen First Round Leader +6600 | BetMGM

Joel Dahmen is a player who has typically excelled at these seaside types of venues. His only win on the PGA TOUR came in Punta Cana and this fall he’s showcased strong ball striking, which should let him take advantage of the easy-to-hit greens and ideal scoring conditions on tap for this week. Dahmen ranks 21st in proximity and has fired rounds of 65 at this venue in each of the past two seasons. He’s got an early a.m. tee time (like Henley) and at 66-1, makes for a good value target in this market based on his projections for the week and recent trends.

Longshots

With another weaker field, we’ll also continue the theme of taking shots in our first-round leader bets from a basket of players with longer odds. You can always use Oddsshopper to check out and compare odds across the major sites.

Davis Riley First Round Leader +7000 | BetMGM 

Despite struggling of late, it’s always good to remember that Davis Riley is one of the most talented young players on the PGA TOUR and is truly capable of popping up for a big week on any course. He finished fifth at the Mexico Open in 2022 and that result was off the back of a missed cut in his previous stroke play start. A return to a country where he had success previously in 2022 could help Riley break out of his funk. While he hasn’t had any high finishes this fall, he has put together some solid rounds. He even opened with a 66 at the Sanderson Farms, which was good enough to share the first-round lead at that event back in September. A few slow weeks have vaulted his odds much bigger than we saw in early fall. With a very early tee time that should have him miss out on the afternoon trade winds, Riley makes for a sensible longshot play now that we can play him at 70-1 on BetMGM.

Lee Hodges First Round Leader +7000 | DraftKings 

Lee Hodges may not have the pedigree that Riley does but he’s still a very solid player and has been showcasing solid form on the fall swing. He also displayed a solid ability to get off to fast starts and ranked 26th last season in first-round scoring averages. The American ranks out seventh in long-term form in strokes gained approach stats and fired a pair of 68s at the much tougher Congaree layout in his last start. This will be his first year playing in Mayakoba but with his irons trending well and an off-the-tee game that doesn’t get him in much trouble, Hodges makes this price worth the risk. He does have an afternoon start time but the price and potential for the p.m. wave to get pushed into Friday make him worth taking on. The weather could still wreak havoc on how the actual draw turns out (in terms of when players finish) so getting some exposure to both waves (in this case with Hodges) makes sense when putting in your bets.

Featured Articles

Related Articles