Welcome to the Stokastic Expert Golf Betting Picks for the 2022 BMW Championship. Stokastic’s golf betting experts have outlined their favorite bets and 2022 BMW Championship golf predictions of the week and located some of the best PGA betting odds and picks this week on BetMGM and more! Check out all of our experts’ favorite bets and predictions below.
BMW Championship Predictions & Betting Picks
In this weekly article, Stokastic golf experts will give their favorite PGA betting picks, odds and predictions of the week for the 2022 BMW Championship.
Ben Rasa’s Pick: Collin Morikawa | RISK FREE Bet
Outright 20-1 (BetMGM)
With only 70 players left in the FedEx Cup playoffs, the options become more and more limited on the betting board. Seeing Morikawa 20-1 stood out immediately to me, as his game seems to be rounding into form for the final stretch. At St. Jude he gained across the board in all four categories, but his moneymaker is the approach game. Coming to a course with generous greens, it could be an iron competition, which is exactly the type of structure we want for Morikawa. He isn’t the man to beat in a field this strong, but that gives us an attackable outright position at 20-1.
Geoff Ulrich’s Pick: Jon Rahm | RISK FREE Bet
Outright +1400 (DraftKings) | Mito Pereira Top 10 +700 (BetMGM)
As I outlined in the fantasy previews on Stokastic, the course looks like it could play tough off the tee, and that makes this week ripe for a Jon Rahm bounce back. Wilmington Country Club is set to play as a long par 71 at over 7,500 yards and should give a huge edge to those who thrive on longer/tougher courses. Rahm was his usual trusty self with the driver last week, gaining over four strokes off the tee in Memphis, and the switch to bentgrass greens here likely won’t hurt either, given that Rahm’s biggest wins (U.S. Open, Memorial) have come on non-Bermuda surfaces. Six of the last seven winners of the BMW Championship have finished inside the top 12 at the first playoff event, which only adds to the case for Rahm, who was fifth last week at TPC Southwind.
For a top-10 play on BetMGM, also look to Mito Pereira. He gained over three strokes on approach last week and thrived on the longer setup at the PGA Championship. He needs a big week just to make it to East Lake and looks like a fair price this week in several different betting markets.
Eytan Shander’s Pick: Davis Riley| RISK FREE Bet
Top 20 (+180 DraftKings) | Top 10 +550 (DraftKings)
In this type of event – the easiest course on tour (trust me, I’ve played it) and the top-heavy field similar to any major, it’s hard to find any mid-range options to win. They just don’t put together four straight days of golf to knock out anyone up top. It’s why guys like Colin Morikawa and Sam Burns present great value, pending you got them north of 20-1/25-1, respectively. This reality also opens the door for great value on T-20 and T-10 finishes for mid to longer shots. Instead of taking Davis Riley to win, the value is better on him hanging with this tougher field.
Playing talent or playing the number can help scale down viable targets for longshot bets in these types of events. Finding the sweet spot of both is where young Davis Riley finds himself. He has shown tons of promise on tour, securing his trip to Delaware with a -6 last week in Memphis. Riley is top 50 in strokes gained tee to green and total strokes gained yet finds himself as a distant longshot to compete with the top part of the field. While it’s not the same strength, Davis has stuck around for the weekend a bunch this year — including six top-10s and four top-fives. Looking at other golfers around that same number, Riley stands out with his value. He is 17th on tour this year in birdies or better and will continue to create scoring chances on this weak track.
If looking for Riley as an outright, he is still +7000 at DraftKings.