Although MLB returned from the All-Star Game break a few days ago, this article was still on hiatus. However, we return today to a full slate of games from which to make MLB picks. Below I have found some of the best MLB Vegas odds and free expert MLB picks, player props and predictions for Monday, July 19.
Expert MLB Picks, Player Prop Predictions & Vegas Odds
Indians vs. Astros Over 9 Runs (-105, PointsBet)
This is the first bet that comes in with a positive return on investment according to Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model. Per Awesemo’s calculations, the total here should be closer to 9.5 runs, and underlying statistics agree. J.C. Mejia should get absolutely shellacked by the Astros, as he has given up 42% hard hits and .439 xSLG while striking out only 21%. Zack Greinke has also seen better days, as he is only striking out 18.5% of batters and giving up an xSLG of .411. This game should be a back-and-forth affair, and a nine total is too low for this pitching matchup given how well these offenses have performed this year.
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Mets vs. Reds: New York Moneyline (+101, William Hill)
The Mets are finally healthy, at least as far as position players go, as they just lost Jacob deGrom to the injured list yesterday. Jerad Eickhoff takes the mound against the Reds tonight. Although he inspires very little confidence, this is a juicy matchup for the Mets offense facing Vladimir Gutierrez. The Mets have quite a few great hitters from the left side of the platoon to go against Gutierrez, and in the middle of them is newly minted two-time Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso. Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model says this is a spot where the Mets should be favored, and some books disagree, making this a juicy spot to bet at plus odds.
Kyle Gibson vs. Tigers: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-143, William Hill)
Kyle Gibson has had a resurgent year, even making the All-Star team and proving that he is a formidable pitcher. Tonight he takes on the Tigers, hardly as competent of bats as he faced in the All-Star game. Although -143 represents short odds, this is a bet that Awesemo’s model predicts would win 68% of the time. That is quite a bit higher than the odds from the sportsbooks. That is why Awesemo’s Player Props model loves this spot tonight.