After a strong weekend, let’s jump into some MLB bets on Monday, Sept. 12. With the help of the Awesemo expert MLB player prop betting tool, below are three of Awesemo’s best MLB bets for tonight.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Prop Odds & Betting Picks
Clayton Kershaw Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
While Clayton Kershaw does not typically have such a low strikeout prop, the Dodgers are surely going to treat him carefully in his return from the IL. Kershaw threw 50 pitches in his last rehab start, and he is unlikely to go over 70 tonight. Thankfully, he gets to face a weak Diamondbacks lineup and also gets to face a pitcher. Arizona’s lineup is much different from the one that started the season due to the fact that they have had another forgettable campaign and have given the young core more at-bats lately. This means they only have one player under a 20% strikeout rate in the lineup tonight. Kershaw should have every chance of getting to five strikeouts, even with a limited pitch count.
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Yu Darvish Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-117)
Yu Darvish faces one of the biggest surprises in all of MLB in the Giants tonight. While the Giants have power and speed up and down their lineup, they also have seven players with over a strikeout rate over 20%. Darvish has almost a 30% strikeout rate and induces extremely weak contact, letting him go deep in games. Even though the Giants have a tough team, betting on Darvish getting the six strikeouts needed is very reasonable at even odds tonight, and Awesemo’s model gives it over a 70% chance of succeeding.
Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Awesemo model is lukewarm on most players to hit a home run tonight. However, Pete Alonso stands out at elevated odds of going deep. Adam Wainwright is still somehow getting people to swing at his curveball, which he rarely throws in the zone and, coupled with a cut fastball, has allowed only 37% hard contact this season. He is also barely walking anyone and is still a successful pitcher at 40 years of age. Alonso had a forgettable 2020, but he has picked up where he left off the year before, with a .527 xSLG. He should not be over +300 to hit a home run against any pitcher in MLB, and he is at very favorable +350 odds tonight.