It is an interesting slate tonight for [main-page-link sport=”bmlb” link=”8″], with fewer teams in action than usual for a Wednesday. With the help of the Awesemo expert MLB player prop betting tool, below are three of Awesemo’s best expert MLB bets today.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Prop Odds & Betting Picks
Rich Hill Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Tonight the Marlins and their elevated strikeout rates continue to be targets. Awesemo’s model is giving this be almost a 70% chance of success, and the even odds make it a bet that carries extreme positive expected value. Picking on the Marlins has been profitable, and Rich Hill’s performance this season is almost irrelevant. The logic and statistics point to any pitcher that is going against Miami, and Hill is no exception.
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Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)
Tonight Mitch Keller takes on the strikeout-happy Tigers, and the sportsbooks are giving up a lofty 5.5 strikeout total. Betting the under in this spot is the play. Keller has struggled mightily with inducing swings and misses, and he carries a below-average 20% strikeout rate. The Tigers lineup only has Akil Baddoo posting a strikeout rate of 27% or more. Detroit has also hit the ball well recently and should continue to do so tonight against a pitcher giving up almost 50% hard contact this season.
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+490)
Matt Olson has come through for home run bettors this year, and tonight should be no exception. The algorithms always elevate the odds in negative platoon split matchups, and most of the time rightfully so. However, Olson handles southpaws quite well, and Dallas Keuchel has not been able to get anyone out with any success this season. He is allowing an xSLG of .480 on only a 5-degree launch angle, which shows that the ball goes a very long way when elevated. Olson is one of the best power hitters in the league and has a great 16-degree launch angle, 50% hard contact and .509 xSLG this season. This is a great spot to target Olson at elevated odds.