There is a short early-evening slate followed by 11 games on the back end, meaning plenty of MLB betting picks to choose from. Let’s jump into some MLB bets on Tuesday, Sept. 21, with the help of the Awesemo expert MLB player prop betting tool.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Prop Odds & Betting Picks
Julio Urias Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-133)
This time of year is tough for betting, as teams that are out of the playoff race are giving their younger players a chance to get a taste of the majors, and teams that have locked down a playoffs spot are resting their players in preparation for October baseball. The Dodgers are not in either of these spots, as they are only one game back of the Giants for the division crown. Julio Urias has been fantastic this season, with a 27% strikeout rate and great numbers across the board. Facing the Rockies in the best hitting park in the league gives pause in DFS world but Urias is still facing many hitters with elevated strikeout rates. Only three players in the lineup for Colorado have strikeout rates below 20%. This is the lock of the night per Awesemo’s model, which gives this bet almost an 80% chance of success.
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Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year. His expected numbers are absolutely fantastic, but he has struggled turning those into real-life outs. However, eventually he will stop running so bad and regress to what his expected numbers are showing. Those numbers suggest that he has a fantastic 35% hard-hit rate and a 27% strikeout rate. The Red Sox are in the thick of the playoff race and need every out from Rodriguez, as their bullpen has struggled mightily down the stretch. This bet has odds that favor the bettors, as it is rather aggressive against a Mets team that does not strike out much, but it is a great spot. Rodriguez’s expected numbers are not being considered by the betting markets as much as they should.
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+450)
Kyle Schwarber had a fantastic run in Washington earlier this year but has struggled since he has come to the American League. Marcus Stroman is a ground-ball pitcher, but Schwarber should be in a great spot to lift Stroman’s sinker over the wall in Boston. Stroman struggles with getting swings and misses, and Schwarber makes great hard contact and has a fantastic xSLG of .547 this season. Awesemo’s model loves this spot tonight.