The third time’s the charm, at least that’s what Deontay Wilder is hoping for Saturday night against Tyson Fury. For the third time, these two fighters will square off, this time at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with the undercard starting at 9 p.m. ET. Following a controversial draw in the first fight, Fury took the rematch last year. The 12-round fight has some good value sprinkled throughout, and with this Fury vs. Wilder 3 trilogy set for Saturday, Oct. 9, let’s make some money! Below are some of the best bets, picks and player props for tonight’s fight.
Fury vs. Wilder 3: Best Bets, Picks & Predictions
Wilder by KO/TKO/DQ +250 (BetMGM)
This is all about capitalizing on Wilder’s desperation and how that transfers into this specific fight. Wilder needs this more than anything; certainly more than Fury. If Wilder loses this fight, Fury moves on and continues to defend belts in the heavyweight division. Wilder also fades away, most likely never to be seen like this on a national setting. For all intents and purposes, Wilder is fighting for his professional career. If Fury loses this fight, we see a fourth match between the two, and the saga continues. The deck is stacked against Wilder, but he’s well aware, and we go back to the desperation and how to maximize it. In order for Wilder to win this fight he can’t afford for it to go the distance, as Fury has the name and history behind him. Wilder’s only shot is to fire away at Fury — risking stamina for a close-out. It would make sense from a narrative standpoint that this is also the best way to extend this rivalry — don’t blame me, the first match was already marred with controversy.
Wilder to Win Rounds 7-9 +1000 (BetMGM)
This is our longshot here, but it starts to make sense when applying the narrative surrounding Wilder and how he can win this fight. No doubt, Wilder will try to end this fight before the cards take over, but Fury isn’t going down easily by any means. The best strategy for Wilder will be softening up Fury, hitting him with a couple of late barrages near the end of rounds. There will be a couple of opportunities for Wilder to end this fight via KO or TKO in the later rounds — be it Fury wearing down or Wilder ramping up the power in punches. We are far more likely to see Wilder try and end this fight with one punch in Rounds 7-9 rather than anything earlier in the bout. Fury is a technician in the ring, so this isn’t an easy pathway to victory for Wilder. The point remains, however, that if Wilder is truly fighting for his career, there will be a sense of desperation that actualizes itself in these rounds. Do anything you possibly can to avoid a decision, including risking your own victory. Wilder and his team is well aware of this and will start taking more risks as the deeper the fight goes.
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Fury to be Win After Being Knocked Down +400 (BetMGM)
While the payout isn’t lifechanging, it’s the best bet on the board if you like Fury to simply win the fight. You aren’t locked in to any round nor method of victory, and play off the last time we saw these two fighters square off in the ring. Maybe not as dramatic as the 12th-round rise from the canvas like last time, but Fury is going to get hit then hit the canvas. Wilder has power — he knocked him down twice in the loss — and will throw everything he can at Fury. Wilder’s conditioning issues last time out aside, Fury hasn’t exactly taken this fight anywhere near as serious, at least over the past 18 months. If Fury is going to win this fight, he stands a good chance of taking every last ounce of effort from Wilder. One of those punches is going to get Fury, not for good, but enough to knock him down. When the victory comes or how, for that matter, is now irrelevant and we get a 4:1 payout on Fury winning the fight.
Distance: 9 or More -110 (BetMGM)
The bet works on a couple of levels starting with marrying the strategies of each fighter. There’s also the overlap play of the earlier bet in Wilder winning in rounds 7-9. Fury is going to have to deal with Wilder shot out of a cannon. Instead of countering back matching the energy, Fury will stay alive — counter striking and attacking — as Wilder loses his gas. Fury either has a favorable decision or opportunity to knock out Wilder, either way it’s going to take at least nine rounds for this to truly materialize. Wilder can’t knock out Fury anytime before the seventh round, but a small window is created now in the ninth. The bet still hinges on both fighters sticking to their strategy, especially Wilder, who can take himself out of the fight. Lock in the bet — take advantage of a decision also covered here. Let’s just hope nobody shows up in 40 pounds of body armor.