Coming off an amazing PPV card at Fight Island, the UFC heads to Madison Square Garden for another loaded PPV with another two titles on the line. Karamu Usman will be defending his belt against Colby Covington for a second time, and Zhang Weili will look to recapture her strawweight championship when she clashes with Rose Namajunas. There are a ton of great betting opportunities tonight, and this article will cover four of the top bets on the card. As always, when shopping for the best UFC betting odds and lines, make sure to use Awesemo OddsShopper to find the top odds at various sportsbooks. It is easily the best tool when it comes to shopping for the top ROI odds for the fights, and it will save bettors a lot of money in the long run. Let’s dig into some of the best UFC betting picks for UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2.
How to Bet UFC 268: Expert UFC Betting Picks Tonight
Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler
Set as the PPV opener, Justin Gaethje will take on Michael Chandler in what has title implications and is a favorite for fight of the night. Gaethje has not fought since he was submitted on Fight Island by Khabib Nurmagomedov. Prior to that he ripped off four straight TKO victories, three of which came in the first round. This will be Chandler’s third fight in the UFC, having knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round and losing by TKO to Charles Oliveira in the second round of their title bout. This is a trend for Chandler; he seems to finish or get finished. He is a brawling wrestler who has explosive power in his hands, but sometimes he cannot maintain the pace over three rounds. This is going to be a problem against Gaethje because Gaethje is a superior wrestler, and he will do nothing but push forward, sometimes with reckless abandon. Chandler has to be the one moving forward to have any shot to win this fight because he struggles fighting off his back foot. It will be a very competitive first round, and Chandler will certainly be live for a finish, but Gaethje is hard to finish. If this sees the later rounds, it is hard not to favor Gaethje. His superior cardio and power will prevail, and getting plus money on a fighter with lights-out power is a great bet.
The Bet: Gaethje by TKO/KO (+100, FanDuel)
Zhang Weili vs. Rose Namajunas
In a rematch of their April 2021 strawweight title fight, Zhang Weili will look to regain her crown after getting knocked out in the first round by Rose Namajunas. The biggest question mark for any Namajunas fight is how she is doing mentally. She checked all of those boxes in the first fight ,so she should be more relaxed in the rematch. Namajunas is a superior technical striker to Zhang, so she will look to use her movement and pick her apart at range. The power and cardio advantages are on the side of Zhang, as she has gone five rounds without gassing before. The cardio of Rose is sometimes a question mark in fights that have grappling heavy exchanges like her fights against Jessica Andrade. Andrade wrestles relentlessly, and Namajunas visibly tired out in the later rounds. Zhang is a capable wrestler, so if she implements some wrestling in the early rounds, theoretically she could get Namajunas tired if this fight extends into the later rounds. All things being equal, Namajunas should be able to stay at range and keep this fight standing. If she does over five rounds, she should be the favorite.
The Bet: Namajunas (+100, FanDuel)
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Ode Osbourne vs. Carlos Vergara
In the opening fight on the card, Ode Osbourne will be taking on Carlos Vergara in a lower-level flyweight matchup. The over/under props on this fight are appealing because it is hard to feel confident in either fighter. Osbourne has three fights in the UFC, and all three have ended in the first round, with one win by knockout and losses by knockout and submission. In Osbourne’s previous five fights before the UFC, all ended in the first round as well. Vergara will be making his UFC debut this weekend as well, and on the regional scene his last six fights have not seen the scorecards. This fight has the under written all over it, but the fight not going to decision is fairly unplayable at -175. On the flip side, for a risky plus money bet, fight to not start Round 2 is +210 on FanDuel Sportsbook. There is no reason to get that greedy when bettors can snag fight to not start Round 3 at -112.
The Bet: Vergara/Osbourne Fight Will Not Start Round 3 (-112, FanDuel)
Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington
Since beating Tyron Woodley for the title, Usman has defended his belt four times, defeating Jorge Masvidal twice, Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. The Covington fight was easily the most competitive fight for Usman. Usman won by TKO in Round 5, but if Covington survived that round, he would have been live for a decision, and that is why the line on this fight is a bit puzzling. Usman being a massive -310 favorite does not make sense, but Vegas is disagreeing. Despite what one may think about Covington outside of the cage, inside the cage he is an elite fighter. The biggest issue for Covington is, can he survive another five rounds of Usman’s power, and if he can, is he a better round winner in the UFC than Usman? There was not even one single takedown attempt in the first fight, which was a tad surprising considering that is the bread and butter for both fighters. It will be interesting to see if either tries wrestling this time around. Covington is as high as +260 on the moneyline at some books, and that is a good bet. However, he is a decision machine, and if he were to beat Usman, the most likely path to victory would be by decision. Since Covington is such a big dog, the price on Covington by decision is excellent.
The Bet: Covington by Decision (+500, BetMGM)