UFC Vegas 40 features an 11-fight card, and it has a main event that came together about 10 days ago. Holly Holm had to withdraw from her main event fight with Norma Dumont with an injury, so Aspen Ladd is filling in on short notice. Ladd missed weight at 135 pounds a few weeks ago and will be moving up to 145 for this fight. This is another card where the moneyline favorites are not the best for betting. However, there are a couple of good underdog opportunities as well as a bunch of props to bet. As always, when shopping for the best UFC betting odds and lines, make sure to use Awesemo OddsShopper to find the top odds at various sportsbooks. It is easily the best tool when it comes to shopping for the top ROI odds for the fights, and it will save bettors a lot of money in the long run. Let’s dig into some of the best UFC betting picks for Vegas 40: Ladd vs. Dumont.
How to Bet UFC Vegas 40: Expert UFC Betting Picks
Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont
Ladd has had five fights in the UFC, and all but one has finished inside the distance, with three TKO victories and a TKO loss in the first round to Germaine de Randamie. Dumont, on the other hand, has won twice in the UFC, and both have been decision victories. However, the lone loss was a TKO from Megan Anderson in the first round. When she chooses to be aggressive, Ladd can finish fights. If she can get into top position, her ground and pound is relentless and can lead to the referee stopping the fight early. Historically Dumont is not a finisher, but Ladd over the course of 25 minutes will make her fight uncomfortably and force action, and Ladd herself got knocked out early against de Randamie. She may have chin issues, and moving up a weight class into a division with more powerful fighters is always a cause for concern. The fight not going to distance is -130 or worse, and buying 2.5 minutes gets the odds down to -108. If the fight hits the fifth round, it will be dicey to end anyway, but over 25 minutes Ladd will force the pace enough to finish or be finished.
The Bet: Ladd/Dumont Under 4.5 Rounds (-108, FanDuel)
Bruno Silva vs. Andrew Sanchez
The Silva fade continues this weekend. Silva’s defensive grappling is not great, and last time out Silva knocked out Wellington Turman in the first. Turman did not get a chance to implement his wrestling since he was knocked out so quickly. The sentiment on Silva remains this weekend, however. Sanchez should be able to get the fight down to the mat and grind on Silva to win at least two of the three rounds. Silva’s power is real, especially in the first round, so there may be some dangerous moments for Sanchez. If he does not get sent to the shadow realm in the first, he should land takedowns and control time. He may even be live for a late finish if Silva is completely gassed, but there is no reason to get greedy with Sanchez at solid dog money.
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The Bet: Andrew Sanchez (+136, FanDuel)
Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez
Gonzalez will be making his UFC debut this weekend against Miller, who is one of the better submission grapplers in the division. Gonzalez has four professional losses, and two of them have come via submission. The path to victory is simple for Miller: If he can land a takedown, he will find a submission early in the fight. Miller has not won a fight by finish outside of the first round since 2011, which is why, on top of betting Miller by submission, a good strategy is to add Miller by submission in the first round for better odds.
The Bet: Jim Miller by Submission (+280), Miller by Submission Round 1 (+750 FanDuel)