The second round of the NASCAR playoffs kicks off in the Las Vegas desert this Sunday evening. Let’s delve into this week’s outright favorites, NASCAR best bets, parlays and betting prop picks for the South Point 400 on BetMGM.
South Point 400 NASCAR Best Bets on BetMGM
A return to Las Vegas sees Kyle Larson return to the ranks of outright favorites. In fact, Larson (+275) has less than half the odds of his next closest competitor — Kyle Busch +650. Besides being the previous winner of Las Vegas, this past Spring, Larson has been the most dominant driver in the 550-horsepower package in 2021. Whatever statistical category betters look at (driver rating, average running position, average finish position, fastest laps, laps led, etc.), Larson is either tied or outright leading. In some categories, like his driver rating and laps led — Larson’s statistical lead is so large it is hard to envision how he has been so much better than his competition.
Betting Larson at shorter odds than +300 is not tantalizing but that’s why parlays exist, and those potential parlays will be addressed later.
Ranking second at BetMGM is the aforementioned Kyle Busch, with just slightly higher odds than his Joe Gibbs teammates — Denny Hamlin (+700) and Martin Truex Jr. (+750). Among that trio, Truex is the only one with a recent win at Las Vegas, however, that came in the Fall of 2019. As per the best recent results at Las Vegas, Hamlin is worth noting back-to-back top-five finishes, leading 168 combined laps over those two events. Finally, if this low horsepower package is what betters are considering, then the slips fall on Busch as the 18 team has been the best of all three in this setup. In the six intermediate-track races, plus Michigan, Busch has yet to finish outside of the top 10 all season with a win at Kansas, another near-win at Atlanta, and multiple other top-three results.
Top 10 Finishes
With a reduction in horsepower, and an uptick in downforce comes an increased capability of the mid-tier teams to race their way into the top 10. It is precisely what Erik Jones did this Spring, and what Chris Buescher and Matt DiBenedetto did last Fall. Sometimes, pit strategy can aid these efforts like the Spring-2020 race when the top 10 was riddled with suspect drivers (Ty Dillon). However, assuming this race is not chaos or attrition filled, there will be one to two drivers who simply just race their way up front, hold position, and cash a favorable top-10 ticket.
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Among the shorter odds, Tyler Reddick is one of the safer bets at +135 for a top-10 finish. In the six races at intermediate tracks, Reddick has finished ninth or better in three straight events. As a former Vegas winner in the Xfinity Series, his knowledge of this track has yet to translate into Cup results with no career finish better than 18th. However, this 2021 campaign has seen Reddick grow leaps and bounds as a driver. If he can find success at Charlotte and Kansas, he should be able to replicate that here at Las Vegas.
At more than double Reddick’s odds comes Chris Buescher, currently +400 for a top-10 finish on Sunday. Outside of Kurt Busch, Buescher is the only driver starting 15th or worse who has more than one top-10 finish in the low horsepower package this season. For the year, Buescher has yet to finish outside of the top 20 in the six intermediate track races plus Michigan. In the two corollary races of Charlotte and Kansas, Buescher found top-ten success there as well.
For those looking for a bet with slightly higher odds, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+650) has theoretical upside considering his 11th-place finish in the Spring. That Las Vegas result was just one of five races, in the low downforce package, where Stenhouse finished 13th or better this season. He has been so close to crossing the top 10 line all year it may be worth a small fractional unit to see if he does not finally do it Sunday night.
Best Bets, Parlays, and Props
The following are a list of best bets, parlays, and props being offered by BetMGM for the South Point 400:
- Best Finish Position — Race: Denny Hamlin -115 over Martin Truex Jr.
- Best Finish Position — Race: Tyler Reddick +115 over Kurt Busch
- Top Ford Car: Ryan Blaney +310
- Best Finish — Group Betting: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +240 over Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, and Cole Custer.
- Best Finish — Group Betting: Chris Buescher +275 over Ross Chastain, Aric Almirola, and Daniel Suarez.
- Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson to both finish in the top five: +165
- Joey Logano to finish in the top three, Chase Elliott to finish in the top five, and Austin Dillon to finish in the top 10: +1800