Tonight Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will host Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. Despite Green Bay putting up a dud in Week 1 and Detroit almost pulling off a big comeback, this game is anticipated to be one-sided. BetMGM Sportsbook has great odds for the Week 2 Monday Night Football game tonight, and these are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 2 NFL Best Bets: Monday Night Football
Spread: Detroit +11.5 (-110)
When it comes to betting sides and totals, Awesemo also has a new sports betting model that compares the current point spread the sportsbook is providing versus what the expected point spread should be. In the sports betting model, it shows an expected point spread of 9.3 points, and BetMGM is offering 11.5 points. The model shows an expected ROI of 10.7%.
The moneyline of +450 for Detroit has a higher expected ROI than the spread because the model gives Detroit a 21% chance to win and the book is giving an 18.2% chance to win. In theory, if a reliable projection offers a better chance to win than the book does, take it. If only making one bet on the game, however, this is not the bet to make.
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Jared Goff Pass Completions: Under 23.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, look at Awesemo’s player props tool to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Goff under 23.5 pass completions is one of the best props of the night that is still on the board, according to the tool. Awesemo has Goff projected for 20.68 completions, and there is a 73% chance that he will hit the under. The expected ROI when the prop was at -110 was 39.2%, and the extra juice of -115 is not enough to make this a bad bet. The only worrisome part of this is, if Detroit is within a score or two late, hurry-up offense and completing underneath passes could lead to a lot of small receptions. If that is a concern, the Goff under 255.5 yards passing (-115) is also a good bet, as the tool projects Goff for 232.61.
D’Andre Swift Over 39.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Awesemo’s Player Props Tool projects Swift to rush for 45.19 yards and gives him a 64% chance of hitting the over. Overs on relatively small yardage totals can in theory be won on one play. Green Bay allowed 171 yards rushing in Week 1 against New Orleans, and Swift is capable of ripping off a 40-yard run at any time.
Aaron Rodgers Touchdowns Passing: Over 2.5 (+100)
The props tool only gives Rodgers a 43% chance of hitting the over. The projection is 2.33 touchdowns passing, meaning they have him throwing two touchdowns or fewer more than they have him throwing three touchdowns or more. That said, I would not be surprised if he threw four touchdowns tonight. This is a pick based on context rather than data, and it is a negative-ROI pick according to the model.