The 2022 Masters is just over eight months away. The 2021 version was won by Hideki Matsuyama, who was playing in the event for the 10th straight year. That kind of experience is vital to understanding what makes a good Masters betting target, and it is something to keep in mind when looking at any Masters futures odds. Keep in mind that any analysis this far away from the actual start date needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt given a ton will change in terms of form between now and April 2022, but we can still look for potential trends and value opportunities in the odds.
The 2022 Masters will again take place at Augusta National and will run from Thursday, April 7, to Sunday, April 10.
1. Experience Matters
- No player has won at Augusta on their first attempt since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979.
- Eight of the last 11 winners at Augusta have played in the event at least three times prior.
- Ten of the last 11 winners had posted at least a top-30 at the Masters in a season prior to winning the event.
This trend tends to be the most important for betting, as a number of names can then be crossed off. Outside of Jordan Spieth (who had one start at Augusta before his win), there are not many winners at Augusta who have not put in at least a handful of starts at the event and shown at least moderate success.
2. Above-Average Recent Form
- Five of the past six winners had recorded at least a top-five finish on the year prior to winning the Masters.
- Three of the past six winners had already picked up a win within the same calendar year.
- Matsuyama was the first player over the last six years not to record a top-five on the PGA Tour in the same calendar year prior to winning the green jacket. Even Matsuyama had shown some long-term form, though, as he recorded a third-place finish in the 2020 FedEx playoffs and a second place in the fall swing of 2020. Late fall and early winter/spring season form is a must.
3. Pedigree Factor
- Each of the last six winners had been ranked inside the top 25 of the OWGR at the time of their win.
- Don’t go chasing waterfalls. The top players at Augusta get it done, even if it is generally not the event favorite who takes home the trophy.
2022 Masters: Futures Betting Targets
Collin Morikawa: +3000 BetMGM
Morikawa is in an interesting spot in the futures odds. He is being discounted a bit by the oddsmakers who understand some of the winners trends themselves. Morikawa has only played the Masters twice (Nov. 2020 and April 2021), but the short time frame means that he has also been exposed to a lot of Augusta in a short window. He posted an 18th-place finish there in April 2021, and this price should be taken advantage of.
Morikawa has grabbed four wins over the past two years on the PGA Tour, which is more than players like Rory McIlroy and Spieth, who are less than half his price in the current Masters futures odds. Morikawa’s strike rate alone makes him a great futures target at +3000, but he is also one of the best ball strikers in the world and ranks first in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 and 100 rounds. While he lacks the experience factor, Morikawa is the kind of elite talent that tends to buck these kinds of trends. At this price he is as good a futures value as there is among the top names.
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Louis Oosthuizen: +6000 PointsBet/DraftKings
It is a major championship, so automatically Oosthuizen has great odds given he will most likely hold the lead at some point in the event. He has played in 13 Masters and came ever so close to winning the event in 2012 when he lost in a playoff to Bubba Watson. His last four seasons have all seen him finish inside the top 30 at Augusta, and he also has six career runner-up finishes at majors in his career.
If Oosthuizen wins in the fall or early on in 2022, his odds could be closer to +3000 by Masters time. Taking double those odds as a future is not a bad investment idea at all. Oosthuizen has aged like a fine wine and ranks as one of the best putters on tour, so there is not much downside to this +6000 price.
Harris English: +10000 BetMGM
English represents the best value out there in the 2022 Masters futures markets. Despite being up to No. 12 in the Official World Golf Rankings — ahead of players like Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Matsuyama — English is double or even triple those players in the Masters odds. The books clearly do not respect his breakout 2021 season (which includes two wins), but that does not mean bettors should not.
English is the perfect age to start challenging at Augusta on the regular. He has only played Augusta three times in his career but also finished a career-best 21st there in 2021 and fits all the non-form trends (experience and ranking). Going back to 2019, he has made the cut in six straight majors and has two top-five major finishes to his credit in that span. He is ready to start challenging at these big events, and his odds suggest he is nothing more than a flash in the pan.