Following the USA’s convincing win at the Ryder Cup, the fall swing picks back up this week with the Sanderson Farms Championship. For the last seven years, the Country Club of Jackson (par 72, 7,461 yards, Bermuda greens) has been the home of this PGA stop. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Expert PGA Picks This Week: Sanderson Farms Championship
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.
Will Zalatoris (+1800, BetMGM)
Ranking 25th in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, Zalatoris is the highest-ranked player competing this week, and the Country Club of Jackson is a perfect venue for him to break through for the first PGA win of his career. Arguably Zalatoris’ top club in his bag is his driver, as he ranks 14th in strokes gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds, which sets him perfectly for this course. Sergio Garcia led his field in strokes gained off the tee during his victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship last season, and he is the fifth winner of this event to rank in the top 10 in the stat since the Country Club of Jackson became the host seven years ago.
Being efficient on the par 5’s at the Sanderson Farms is also critical. Six of the seven winners at the Country Club of Jackson ranked in the top 10 in strokes gained on par 5’s during their victories, and across his past 50 rounds Zalatoris ranks fourth in the metric. Half of his top-10 finishes at the PGA level have come on par 72s, and Zalatoris needs to be backed at these odds.
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Mito Pereira (+3500, PointsBet)
After winning three Korn Ferry Tour events, including back-to-back wins in June, Pereira earned his PGA card and quickly started to make a name for himself. In his first six starts as a PGA member Pereira carded three finishes inside the top-six, including a third-place finish at the Fortinet Championship just two weeks ago. At that event no player in the field struck the ball better than Pereira. He led the field in both strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained on approach. Pereira also ranks eighth in strokes gained off the tee over his last 24 rounds and performed well at the Tokyo Olympics this past July. He shined on the biggest stage in Japan, finishing in a tie for fourth place.
Six of the seven golfers to secure the top prize at the Country Club of Jackson were first-time winners at the PGA level, and Pereira is in a good spot for his first PGA victory in this weak field.
Seamus Power (+5000, BetRivers)
Power is a steal at this price. He has four top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, most notably with a win at the Barbasol Championship, which was held on a par 72 nearly the same length as the Country Club of Jackson. Power ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in strokes gained approach, first in bogeys avoided and first in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. Furthermore, he ranks fourth in strokes gained on par 4’s between 400 and 450 yards, which is important for this week, with six of the 10 par 4’s at Jackson falling in this range. Power has produced a pair of top-20 finishes in four appearances at the Country Club of Jackson. Via Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, he is the 74th-best player on the planet, which is 32 spots higher than his standard world ranking.