Following Sam Burns’ win at the Sanderson Farms Championship, next on the PGA calendar is the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Since 1992 TPC Summerlin (par 71, 7,255 yards, bentgrass greens) in Las Vegas has been the home of this tournament. Twenty-six of the 29 golfers to capture a win at this track have cracked 20 strokes under par, and with excellent weather forecasted for all four days of the event, it is safe to expect another birdie fest this week. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the Shriners Open.
Expert PGA Picks This Week: Shriners Open
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.
Harris English (+3000, BetMGM)
With two wins last season, English was one of only six players to pick up multiple victories. One of these wins just came less than four months ago at the Travelers, and English finished last season third in par-5 efficiency. Two of the past four players to take home the top prize at TPC Summerlin led their fields in par-5 efficiency, and English ranks second in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds at courses with bentgrass greens. To top it all off, English is 5-for-7 made cuts at the Shriners Open, including a fourth-place finish in 2016.
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Si Woo Kim (+4500, PointsBet)
Kim finished eighth at TPC Summerlin last season, which was his third top-25 finish at the venue in four appearances. Now he returns to Vegas in outstanding form, fresh off an eighth-place finish at the Sanderson Farms this past week. This was his third finish inside the top 11 in his past five starts, and over his last 12 rounds Kim’s ball striking has been terrific, ranking third in strokes gained tee to green. Plus, over this stretch he ranks first in both birdie-or-better percentage and strokes gained on par 4’s from 400 to 450 yards. The latter stat is particularly important for this week considering seven of the 11 par 4’s at TPC Summerlin fall in this range. With four PGA victories already under his belt, Kim has the upside to win any given week, and these odds are far too long for his current form.
Mito Pereira (+5000, William Hill)
Pereira is a world-class ball striker who is going to find himself in the PGA winner’s circle very soon, and a second shot course like TPC Summerlin is a perfect place to invest in him. Three of the past five golfers to win at this track have finished inside the top five in strokes gained approach during their victories, and across his last 12 rounds Pereira ranks second in the metric. Additionally, he ranks first in strokes gained tee to green, first in bogeys avoided and ninth in strokes gained on par 5’s during this time.
In his first eight starts as a PGA member, Pereira has already produced three finishes inside the top six, and two of his three wins on the Korn Ferry Tour this past year came on par 71s that feature bentgrass greens, just like TPC Summerlin. Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf rankings rank Pereira 47th in the world, and he has to be considered at this number.