For the final event of the 2021 PGA season, East Lake Golf Club (par 70, 7,346 yards, Bermuda greens) in Atlanta will host the Tour Championship this week. This venue was designed by Donald Ross and has been the home of the Tour Championship since 2004, and for the second straight season, the playoff finale will use the starting stroke format. Instead of a normal event where each player starts at the same even-par score, this week every player will start with a score that is based on their current position in the FedEx Cup standings. After winning the BMW Championship this past weekend, Patrick Cantlay has the most FedEx Cup points and will start this tournament at 10 under. Via this link, you can see the see the starting positions for the rest of the field. Every week I use Alex Baker’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings to identify mispriced options in both the PGA DFS and golf betting market. Below are three expert PGA picks this week and Vegas betting odds for the Tour Championship.
Expert PGA Picks This Week: Tour Championship Odds
Much like the standard rankings in golf, Awesemo has produced the Unofficial World Golf Rankings. We can use these in PGA DFS lineups or to find an edge on our golf betting picks. At Awesemo, the metric is the number of strokes above or below how an average field in a PGA tournament performed. How to weigh these data points is essential, as people love to talk about short form versus long form. Only PGA tournaments are considered right now, and golfers need a minimum of 20 rounds played.
Jon Rahm (+400, PointsBet)
Rahm has been the best golfer in the world this season, and he could easily run away with the top prize this week. He has produced 14 top-10s in 21 starts this season, the most by any player on tour, including the first major title of his career at the U.S. Open. Rahm ranks first in Awesemo’s Unofficial World Golf Rankings, and he will start at 6 under this week, only 4 back of Cantlay.
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Including a fourth-place finish here last season, Rahm has a pair of top-10s at East Lake in four starts, and he also ranks first in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds at no-cut events. Additionally, Rahm ranks first on tour in bogey avoidance, which will be extremely important this week since eight of the past 10 champions to claim a victory in Atlanta have ranked top three in bogeys avoided during their wins.
Rory McIlroy (+2500, BetMGM)
Starting 8 off the lead is a difficult task to overcome, but if anyone could do it at East Lake, it is McIlroy. He has absolutely dominated at this course during his career, with two wins and six top-10s in seven career appearances. Now he returns to Atlanta on the heels of a fourth-place finish at the BMW Championship, where he gained over six strokes tee to green and 4.6 strokes on the greens. This was his second-best putting performance of the season, and if that continues, McIlroy has the upside to win the third FedEx Cup of his career. At +2500 odds, he’s one of the top PGA picks this week, according to the Awesemo Unofficial World Golf Rankings
Scottie Scheffler (+2500 to win without FedEx Cup strokes, William Hill)
In his course debut at East Lake last season, Scheffler second for the week at -12 (excluding starting position strokes), ranking second in strokes gained tee to green and leading the field in strokes gained on approach in the process. Scheffler now makes his second trip Atlanta in outstanding form, ranking seventh in strokes gained tee to green, seventh in strokes gained on approach and fourth in strokes gained on par 4’s across his past 24 rounds. Lastly, Scheffler has displayed tremendous upside in elite fields this year. His season resume includes three major top-10s and a fifth place at the WGC-Workday Championship. At these odds, Scheffler is worth investing in this week.