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NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields & More (Oct. 1)

We went a solid 4-1 on our NFL player props last week, and we’re back with more banger picks for this weekend’s action. OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL player prop betting markets for Week 4, including Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields, for Dolphins-Bills, Broncos-Bears and more Week 4 action.

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NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets: Picks for Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields & More

Dolphins-Bills Player Prop Bet | Week 4

Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
Who: Tua Tagovailoa at FanDuel

The current MVP frontrunner headlines one of our top NFL player prop bets for Week 4. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are playing the best football of any team in the league. The offense is averaging over 40 points per game in large part because of a 70 burger they put on the Denver Broncos last week. The task will be more difficult on Sunday against a lethal Buffalo Bills offense that can put up points in the hurry and have the Dolphins play from behind.

Tagovailoa has been extremely sharp to start the season. His 71% completion percentage ranks in the top five among quarterbacks. He is also averaging over 10 yards per completion, good for first in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle will make his return after suffering a concussion in Week 2 on Sunday Night Football, which bodes well for bettors as he and Tyreek Hill can take any screen pass or slant route to the house.

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Tagovailoa’s 28 pass completions against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 kicked off a great start to Tagovailoa’s season. Like that Week 1 game, Week 4’s Dolphins-Bills matchup has the highest total on the slate, with the number sitting at 53.5 on FanDuel. I expect the Bills to continue their offensive success as they’ve scored 37 and 38 points in back-to-back games, resulting in Tagovailoa having to drop back to pass more often.

Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop: Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Pass Completions -122 at FanDuel

Broncos-Bears Player Prop Bet | Week 4

Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago
Who: Justin Fields at DraftKings

Not much has gone right for the Chicago Bears this season, but the Denver Broncos are the perfect get-right matchup. Denver is unlikely to have several key pieces of its defense, including linebacker Josey Jewell and pass rusher Frank Clark. The Broncos rank an embarrassing 32nd in both expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and rush attempt. They just gave up 700-plus yards to the Dolphins in a demoralizing loss, and now they get to face a difficult-to-defend Justin Fields.

Fields might be averaging only 211.6 combined passing and rushing yards per game, but we’re playing him to go over the 249.5. He started last season off similarly slow — he was averaging only 130.7 passing and rushing yards per game through Week 3 last year, but then he turned things up a notch and averaged 249.4 the rest of the way. The matchup with a banged-up and inefficient Denver defense bodes well for him.

Fields is also a more efficient player at home. He averages 0.2 more yards per pass attempt and 1.2 more yards per attempt when playing at Soldier Field, and while that not may sound like much, that’s a gain of 4.5 passing yards and 10.2 rushing yards when we factor in his average number of attempts per game. I’m a little concerned by offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s poor play-calling, but if there were ever a spot for him to figure things out, it’s this one.

Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop: Justin Fields Over 249.5 Passing & Rushing Yards -115 at DraftKings 

Rams-Colts Player Prop Bet | Week 4

Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Who: Kwity Paye at DraftKings

The Indianapolis Colts will host the Los Angeles Rams early on Sunday afternoon, and quarterback Matthew Stafford is in for another bruising. The Rams have not invested in their offensive line at all, and it’s led to Stafford taking seven sacks across three games. The Rams rank an awful 27th in pass-block win rate (46%). Their tackles have been terrible — left tackle Joe Noteboom owns a PFF grade of 45.5, while right tackle Rob Havenstein owns a 58.6. Their best performer has been backup center Coleman Shelton who owns a 67.5.

The bad Rams offensive line now has a road game with the Colts, and Indianapolis has been surprisingly good at rushing the passer. The Colts rank eighth in pass-rush win rate (50%) and have racked up an impressive 12 sacks, which is tied with the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills for third. Defensive end Kwity Paye has been a key part of their success. He has racked up three sacks — one in each game — to go with a team-high six pressures. With the Colts usually lining him up on the edge, he’ll benefit from the Rams’ struggles at tackle.

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You can find Paye priced at +120 via DraftKings Sportsbook to record at least a half-sack. Although his hot start to the year isn’t likely to be sustainable, Paye averaged a half-sack per game last year, cashing the over in five of his 12 appearances. However, what stands out to me is that Paye averaged only 1.6 pressures per game last year but is already averaging two per game this year. The third-year player has been developing nicely, and I expect him to do some damage in the backfield again in Week 4.

Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop: Kwity Paye Over 0.25 Sacks +120 at DraftKings

Steelers-Texans Player Prop Bet | Week 4 

Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Who: C.J. Stroud at DraftKings

The Houston Texans will host the scary Pittsburgh Steelers defense this weekend. The imposing Steel Curtain is a tough matchup for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. The Steelers have allowed 259.7 passing yards per game this year, but the bulk of that damage came in garbage time during Week 3 — after being kept in check for most of the game, Jimmy Garoppolo ended up with 324 total passing yards. I don’t expect to see a similar performance from C.J. Stroud — neither Deshaun Watson nor Brock Purdy surpassed this total against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh’s defense is a solid unit in terms of meaningful production allowed to quarterbacks. The Steelers rank eighth in EPA allowed per dropback and 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt. With a defensive front that features pass rusher T.J. Watt and a secondary that boasts Minkah Fitzpatrick, Stroud doesn’t have an easy task ahead. It’ll be an adjustment for him, too: his last two games came against bottom-10 units in yards allowed per pass attempt, which explains his bloated average of 302 passing yards per game.

Stroud’s passing production just has to slow down. No other rookie quarterback this year is even averaging 200 yards per game. Since 2010, only seven rookie quarterbacks to take over the full-time starting job have averaged more than 250 passing yards per game — Cam Newton (253.2), Andrew Luck (273.4), Jameis Winston (252.6), Baker Mayfield (266.1), Justin Herbert (289.1) and Joe Burrow (268.8) — and all averaged far less than what we’re seeing from Stroud now. Sell high on the rookie signal-caller against a tough defense.

Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop: C.J. Stroud Under 242.5 Passing Yards -115 at DraftKings

Commanders-Eagles Player Prop Bet | Week 4

Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Who: Jake Elliott at DraftKings

Jake Elliott has cemented himself as one of the top kickers in the NFL. He has ranked in the top 10 in field goal percentage each of the last two seasons. This year, he has drilled the second-most field goals through the first three weeks, including three from 50 yards or longer. Sunday’s forecast even calls for great kicking weather. Elliott has gone over this total in three out of his last four home games to boot, a streak that dates back to last season’s postseason run.

Philadelphia’s red-zone offense has been the talking point of their 3-0 start. They rank in the bottom 10 in that department, which has resulted in Elliott having to be used more than they’d like. On the other hand, the Washington Commanders‘ red-zone defense has been stifling. They’ve allowed a touchdown on just 40% of opponents’ drives that are in the red zone, with opposing kickers averaging just below three field goals made per game.

Elliott’s leg gives the Eagles a great chance to cash in for three points at any time. He has already converted a 60-yarder this season and is good on three of his four attempts from 50 or longer yards. In a divisional game that could prove somewhat low-scoring, Elliott will be an integral part of Philadelphia’s hopes of moving to 4-0.

Best NFL Week 4 Player Prop: Jake Elliott Ove 7.5 Kicking Points -120 at DraftKings

OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 4 now!

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