2026 US Open Picks: 3 Outright Bets at Shinnecock
The US Open tees off Thursday, June 18 at Shinnecock Hills, and if you know anything about Shinnecock, you know this tournament will sort itself out differently than a standard stroke-play event. The course rewards precision over power, it punishes mistakes severely, and it has a way of identifying the week's best ball-striker rather than just the week's hottest putter. That profile matters a lot when you're picking outrights.
I have three bets this week. None of them are the favorite. Here is the case for each.
In Summary
- Scottie Scheffler is the clear chalk at +550 for a reason. This preview is about the value underneath him.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2400 DraftKings): elite iron play that suits Shinnecock, a decade-plus of US Open experience, and three Top 5 finishes in the event. The major win hasn't come yet but the form and track record make this price worthwhile.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2150 DraftKings): racking up wins in 2026, a second place in Canada last week, and he already has a US Open on his resume from 2022. He knows what it takes to win this specific event.
- Tyrrell Hatton (+4700): LIV limits his exposure but not his game. He was 3rd at the Masters in April and 4th at Oakmont last year when the winning score was -1. At 47-1 that profile is worth a unit.
- Before you place any of these, check OddsShopper for the best available price. Outright markets have some of the widest book-to-book spreads in betting.
Why Shinnecock Changes the Calculus
Shinnecock Hills is one of the most demanding tests in major championship golf. It plays firm and fast, the rough is brutal when the USGA lets it grow, and the greens are small targets that require precise approaches from the correct angles. You are not going to bomb your way around Shinnecock and cover up mistakes with a wedge from the rough. Every club in the bag matters, and specifically, the players who can work the ball and hit precise mid-iron approaches tend to find themselves in contention come Sunday.
This sets up a different type of winner than you might see at Augusta or even some of the longer Open Championship venues. It rewards the complete player: length is useful but not decisive, and iron accuracy and course management separate the field by Sunday afternoon.
Keep that framework in mind as you read through the picks below. It is the reason I am drawn to these three names specifically. New to betting a major? Our how to bet the US Open guide and how to bet golf primer cover the markets and mechanics, and my 2026 US Open betting preview breaks down the full board beyond these three plays.
Pick 1: Tommy Fleetwood (+2400 DraftKings)
Who knows if it'll ever happen for Fleetwood when it comes to majors. He has been so close so many times and has not been able to get one over the line. That reality is priced into his odds and it is a fair concern.
But here is what is not in question: his form right now is undeniable, his off-the-tee metrics have been among the most reliable on tour all year, and his iron play is genuinely elite. Those two things together are exactly what Shinnecock demands.
The US Open track record matters too. Fleetwood has more than a decade of experience at this event, including three Top 5 finishes. He knows how to navigate a US Open setup and how to stay patient when the course is trying to make you scramble. That experience is worth something at a major, especially one that rewards process over flash.
The knock on him is the same as it has always been: he has been in position to win majors before and has not closed. That is real. But at +2400, you are getting a player with a suited game, proven US Open credentials, and current form, at a price that reflects the doubt rather than the case. That is where value lives in outright betting.
Ben Rasa's Tails golf card is where his weekly outright plays live, with the course-fit, form, and matchup reasoning behind every pick laid out so you see why it is on the card. If you would rather follow a sharp than build the model yourself, follow Ben Rasa's golf card on Tails. New to Tails? Code EAGLE15 takes 15% off your first week or month: Follow Ben's card
Pick 2: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2150 DraftKings)
Fitzpatrick has been destroying the field in 2026. Multiple wins, a consistent run of top-end finishes, and a second place at the Canadian Open last week heading into Shinnecock. He is playing some of the best golf of his career right now.
More importantly: he already has a US Open on his resume. He won the 2022 US Open at The Country Club and a lot of what made him successful there, the ball-striking under pressure, the patience with the setup, the willingness to take his medicine and play smart, travels to Shinnecock. These are transferable skills that are specific to this event.
A player who has already won a US Open is a different proposition in an outright than one who hasn't. He knows what it feels like to be in contention on a Sunday at the US Open and he knows how to handle it. That is not something the odds fully price in when you're looking at +2150.
With Scheffler at +550 as the heavy chalk, Fitzpatrick's price is attractive for a player in this form with this specific pedigree.
Pick 3: Tyrrell Hatton (+4700)
We do not see Hatton week to week because of LIV, which keeps him out of the regular PGA Tour rotation and out of the public betting conversation. That reduced visibility tends to make prices in outright markets a little soft.
But look at what he has actually done: he finished 3rd at the Masters in April. That is a top-tier major result on one of the most demanding courses in the world. And last year at Oakmont, he finished 4th in a US Open where the winning score was -1. Oakmont is about as close to a US Open stress test as you can get, and Hatton passed it.
His game is built for these conditions. He is not a bomber who relies on wedge approaches from the rough. He manages the course, hits fairways, and can handle the grinding, low-scoring conditions that define a tough US Open setup.
At 47-1 (+4700), the market is pricing in the LIV visibility discount more than the actual game. For a player with a recent major podium and a proven US Open track record at comparable conditions, that is a price I can get behind.
Line Shopping Before You Bet
Outright markets are where book-to-book price differences are widest. A player listed at +2400 on DraftKings might be +2600 or +2800 at another book, and on a bet that only cashes if your guy wins the tournament, that difference in payout matters.
Before you place any of these three bets, spend 60 seconds on OddsShopper. It pulls the current odds for every golfer from 100+ sportsbooks side by side, so you can confirm you are getting the best available price before you lock it in. On a +4700 shot like Hatton, the difference between books could be worth hundreds of dollars on a modest stake. For more on reading these prices, see how to read golf odds, and the golf betting terms glossary covers the markets in plain English.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is the 2026 US Open being played?
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York. The tournament runs June 18-21.
Who is the favorite for the 2026 US Open?
Scottie Scheffler leads the field at +550. Rory McIlroy (+1200) and Jon Rahm (+1300) are next in the market.
Why does Shinnecock Hills suit Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick specifically?
Both players are elite iron players who rank among the best on tour at precision approach play. Shinnecock rewards that profile over raw distance, and both have track records at US Open-style setups that support the case.
Is Tyrrell Hatton a realistic US Open contender?
Based on recent results, yes. He finished 3rd at the 2026 Masters and 4th at last year's US Open at Oakmont, which played at -1 for the winner. Those are not flukes. The 47-1 price reflects limited visibility from his LIV schedule more than his actual major credentials.
How do I find the best odds on US Open outrights?
OddsShopper compares odds across 100+ sportsbooks in real time. For outright markets like the US Open, where prices can vary significantly from book to book, it is the fastest way to confirm you have the best available number before you bet.
Good luck this week. Shinnecock is going to be a grind and that is exactly why these three names make sense at these prices.
Ben Rasa's Tails golf card is where his weekly outright plays live, with the course-fit, form, and matchup reasoning behind every pick laid out so you see why it is on the card. If you would rather follow a sharp than build the model yourself, follow Ben Rasa's golf card on Tails. New to Tails? Code EAGLE15 takes 15% off your first week or month: Follow Ben's card
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