World Cup Futures Picks: Ivory Coast, Colombia, Japan

In Summary (TL;DR)

I already laid out my first three World Cup futures bets, and here are three more I'm backing as the tournament opens. All three are about price meeting profile: a team whose true chance I rate higher than the number on the board. Ivory Coast to be the top African team (+550) rides real momentum after they beat France in a tune-up. Colombia to reach the semifinals (+650) is a deep-run bet on a team I think wins its group. And Japan to win Group F (+250) is the value play in a manageable draw. None of these are certainties, they're spots where I think the payout is bigger than the risk over time. Prices move daily, so shop every book for the best number, and you can sanity-check team prices against the live World Cup title odds. If you want the mechanics behind betting these markets, our guide to betting World Cup futures walks through it.

Bet 1: Ivory Coast to Be the Top African Team (+550)

Ivory Coast are already turning heads. They beat France 2-1 in a World Cup tune-up on June 4, coming back in the second half against one of the tournament favorites, and that's not a fluke result for this group. I love the young core here, and I think they can do real damage out of a manageable draw.

This isn't to say Morocco and Senegal aren't talented, they clearly are, and either could win this market. But when I weigh the draw, the talent, and the momentum together, I land on the Elephants. At +550 the price implies about a 15% chance to finish as the best African side, and I make their true chance comfortably higher than that. That's the edge I'm backing. If their attacking talent translates and they get through the group with a head of steam, this is a live ticket deep into the tournament.

Bet 2: Colombia to Reach the Semifinals (+650)

I'm already on Colombia to win Group K, and this is the natural extension of that view. Win the group, and the knockout path sets up for a deep run. Missing the 2022 World Cup feels like a lifetime ago for this squad; they check a ton of boxes of a team poised to compete, with talent that is not in question.

The honest caveat is consistency. This team can go quiet for stretches, and the bet really comes down to their defensive output, if they defend at a quality level, the attacking talent is good enough to beat anyone in a one-off knockout match. At +650 the price implies roughly a 13% chance to reach the final four, and for a team I rate to win its group, I think that's too long. I'd rather take the semis number than the outright, because it pays a deep run without needing them to win the whole thing.

Bet 3: Japan to Win Group F (+250)

A lot of people are bullish on the Blue Samurai, and it's hard not to be. This is an electric team that pushes the pace and genuinely tests opposing defenses, exactly the profile that can win a tight group rather than just survive it.

The draw helps. Group F is the Netherlands, Tunisia, and Sweden, a more than manageable assignment for a side this dangerous. The Netherlands are the nominal favorite, but I don't think the gap is as wide as the prices suggest. At +250 Japan implies about a 29% chance to win the group, and I'd take that all day for a team I'd argue is closer to a coin flip with the Dutch for top spot. That's a price I'm willing to pay.

How to Bet These the Right Way

These are my reads, but how you bet them matters as much as which ones you pick:

• Shop every book. Futures prices vary a lot between sportsbooks. My +550, +650, and +250 are where I found them, but if another book is a half-step better, take the better number. That difference is real value over time. Futures boards also carry a heavy margin, a World Cup outright market can run a 130% to 140% hold, so beating the price matters even more here. The OddsShopper odds comparison lines up every book's price on each market.
• Bet the value, not the story. Each of these is a bet because I think the true chance beats the implied price, not because I like the jersey. If the number shortens past where you rate the team, it stops being a bet.
• Size for the long settlement. Futures tie your money up for weeks and most won't cash, so keep each to a small, sensible slice of your bankroll and never chase a busted ticket.

Get the best number on every futures pick. OddsShopper's odds comparison and Portfolio EV de-vig and compare prices across every book in real time, so you take the sharpest available price on Ivory Coast, Colombia, and Japan. Start with a free 7-day trial, then code WCFUTURES cuts 30% off OS Pro or OS Core, which works out to less than a coffee a day: Claim the deal.

FAQ

What are Ben Rasa's World Cup futures picks? Three more futures I'm backing for 2026: Ivory Coast to be the top African team (+550), Colombia to reach the semifinals (+650), and Japan to win Group F (+250). They're alongside my first three World Cup futures bets.

Why bet Ivory Coast as the top African team? They beat France 2-1 in a June tune-up, they have a talented young core, and I like their draw and momentum. Morocco and Senegal are talented too, but the combination of draw, talent, and form has me on the Elephants at +550.

Why Colombia to reach the semifinals instead of to win it all? Because the semis price pays a deep run without needing Colombia to win the whole tournament. I rate them to win Group K, which sets up a favorable knockout path, and +650 to reach the final four looks long for a team with this much talent, as long as they defend.

Is Japan to win Group F good value at +250? I think so. Group F (Netherlands, Tunisia, Sweden) is manageable, and Japan's pace and attacking quality make them closer to a coin flip with the Netherlands for top spot than +250 implies.

The Bottom Line

Three more spots where I think the price is bigger than the risk: Ivory Coast at +550, Colombia at +650, and Japan at +250. Bet the difference between the true chance and the number, shop every book for the best price, and size them for a long settlement. None are certainties, but over time these are the kinds of prices I want to be on.

Shop every World Cup futures price across books with the OddsShopper odds tools so you always bet the best number. Start with a free 7-day trial, then code WCFUTURES takes 30% off OS Pro or OS Core: Claim the deal.

Bet only where it's legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.