Just three races remain in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. The Dixie Vodka 400 odds have already been released, so bettors looking for an edge at this year’s race at Homestead Speedway should head to the books quickly before value gets bid off the board. The banked 1.5-mile track is the only true oval on NASCAR’s schedule, and its worn surface is conducive to a fair amount of tire wear. As a result, we’ll focus on two drivers who performed well at similar tracks — Auto Club and Darlington — in the following Dixie Vodka 400 picks and predictions.
2022 NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions
NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Odds
Kyle Larson to Win | +1000 (0.25 Unit) at DraftKings
Before Tyler Reddick came along, Kyle Larson was seen as the king of Homestead. Both drivers are excellent at driving as close to the wall as possible, which is usually the fastest way around Homestead. Both drivers have also fared well at Homestead's comparator tracks, Auto Club and Darlington, which both feature high speeds, banking and lots of tire wear. But Reddick sits at 7-1 to Larson's 10-1, so the Hendrick Motorsports driver makes for the sharper bet.
Larson has shown plenty of speed at Homestead's comparators in the NextGen car. He won at Auto Club in February after leading 28 laps. He blew an engine while running up front at Darlington in the spring but finished with 30 laps led, third-most among drivers who started the race. He finished an unremarkable 12th in the fall Darlington race, but he did so after losing multiple laps due to engine difficulties.
Larson was eliminated from the playoffs in the Round of 12, which leaves him with nothing to do but go for wins. The veteran driver is yet to win at Homestead despite several close calls -- he led the most laps here in 2016 and 2017 but finished second and third, respectively. But now that Homestead doesn't host the season's final race, Larson will feel less pressure to let slower, championship-contending cars pass him. With Larson's Dixie Vodka 400 all the way up at 10-1, backing him to score a long-deserved win here offers solid returns.
Erik Jones to Win | +5000 (0.05 Unit) at FanDuel
Erik Jones Top 10 | +185 (0.7 Unit) at FanDuel
Reddick and Larson have impressive stats at Homestead and its comparators. In contrast, Erik Jones has looked great at the two comparator tracks but not here. Jones already has two Southern 500 wins, including this year's event, and he nearly won at Auto Club earlier this season. Jones led laps in all three comparator events and only got knocked out of the spring Darlington race because of an accident.
But can Jones build on his strong showings at those tracks for a successful performance at Homestead? Four of the last five times a Darlington race was held before a Homestead race, the Darlington winner scored at least a top-10 result at Homestead. Kevin Harvick is the lone exception, but that came in 2020, the only previous year in which two Darlington races came before a Homestead race.
Jones has also shown decent speed at Homestead before. Although he is yet to win here, he scored a third-place result back in 2019. Although that marks his only top-20 Cup Series finish at the track, Jones had put together a solid resume at Homestead in NASCAR's feeder series. He finished third here in the Xfinity Series back in 2015, losing to only two full-time Cup Series drivers. He then finished ninth here a year later. Notably, Jones led laps in both events.
Jones has scored 13 top-10 finishes this year, or in 39.3% of his races. The NASCAR driver's Dixie 400 betting odds of +185 imply a 35.1% chance that he scores a top 10, which is slightly below his actual hit rate. The sportsbooks continue to disrespect Jones at their own peril.