The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have arrived — and so has playoff chaos. Playoff drivers Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott all had problems at Darlington last week. Those six drivers will look to get back on track at the in Kansas. Busch, Larson and Elliott all opened with outright lines shorter than 1o-1 in the NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 odds.
But two of Busch’s Toyota teammates make for better value bets this weekend. We’ll target one playoff driver and another driver looking for his first win of 2022 in this week’s Hollywood Casino 400 picks and predictions.
2022 NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Odds
Hollywood Casino 400: Christopher Bell to Win | +1400 (0.1 Unit) at PointsBet
Christopher Bell and the entire Toyota camp have been bad fast at the traditional 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Bell led laps after starting on the pole at Las Vegas and in the spring Kansas race. He didn't lead at Charlotte or at the All-Star Race in Texas, but he started second and again led laps early at the two-mile, smooth-surfaced Michigan International Speedway. Bell has two top 5s and four top-10s in four starts at 1.5-mile tracks this year.
But Bell wasn't the only one who looked good in those events. Toyota teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch led at Las Vegas and Charlotte. Kyle and Kurt Busch led at the earlier Kansas race — an event the elder Busch brother dominated. Hamlin, Wallace and even Ty Gibbs led at Michigan just a month ago.
With Martin Truex Jr. out of the playoffs, Joe Gibbs Racing will focus on getting their three playoff teams as far as possible. But Bell might not even need the help -- he owns a better average finish and more top 5s than both Busch and Hamlin. He has the third-highest average starting position in the garage as well. Bell opened at just 10-1 at DraftKings, so head to PointsBet for the best value on the market. If that book isn't available in your state, Barstool has this line available at 13-1.
Hollywood Casino 400 Prediction: Bubba Wallace to Win | +2000 (0.1 Unit) at DraftKings
Erik Jones became the 17th different driver to win last week, and we're through only 27 races. Bubba Wallace could make it 18 with a strong run this weekend. Wallace, now piloting teammate Kurt Busch's No. 45 Toyota, has looked exceptionally fast at 1.5-mile intermediates. After a disappointing 25th-place result at Las Vegas, Wallace scored a top 10 at the spring Kansas race despite a miscue by his pit crew that cost him a penalty. He looked fast and led at Charlotte before damage cost him the race as well. And while it's not a perfect comparator for Kansas, Wallace started on the pole at Michigan, led 22 laps and finished second.
Both Wallace and 23XI Racing have made exceptional progress throughout the year. Wallace owns five top-10 results over the last eight races and an average finishing position of 10.8. He led laps in half of those events as well. Wallace should find Victory Lane again before the year ends, and it might just happen at Kansas.
DraftKings is relatively long on Wallace despite his strong recent showings. He opened at 18-1 elsewhere but is 20-1 at DraftKings. Wallace earned a spot in the second round of qualifying at both Michigan and Charlotte, the two most recent comparator events, and a similar performance would send this number plummeting toward 15-1. Lock in the value before sharps eat it up at DraftKings.
Top 10 Bet: Wallace| -110 (1.1 Unit) at DraftKings
Top 10 Bet: Gibbs | +100 (1 Unit) at DraftKings
Both Wallace and his 23XI teammate, Ty Gibbs, are smart picks to score top-10 finishes in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas. Wallace finished 10th here in the spring despite losing significant time due to his pit crew, a problem he won't have while driving for the No. 45 team. Wagering enough on him to win back a full unit seems like a smart bet, especially given his strong run of four top 10s in the last eight races.
Ty Gibbs is a riskier play, but there is an equipment-based correlation at work here. Both 23XI cars scored top 10s in the spring Kansas race and at Michigan. Both also led laps at Charlotte despite neither car finishing the race due to damage. Further, Gibbs was behind the wheel of the No. 45 Toyota at Michigan, so we've already seen him bring home a top-10 result at a similar track in the Cup Series. Further, Gibbs won the Xfinity Series races at Las Vegas and Kansas earlier this year. He has an average finish of 1.5 at Charlotte as well.
Top 10 Bet: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +600 (.2 Unit) at DraftKings
We'll devote the last portion of this week's recommended 2.5 units to a long-shot top-10 bet. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and JTG Daugherty Racing own five top-10 results on the year. One of those came at Kansas in the spring, and the other came at Charlotte. Stenhouse also looked fast during All-Star Weekend in Texas by winning the first stage of the Open.
Stenhouse lacks the green-flag speed of his competitors, but these odds are far too long given his performance at similar tracks. Stenhouse likely won't score a top-10 finish without some carnage -- whether it be a result of playoff retaliation or various NextGen mechanical failures — but that kind of chaos might just be in the cards. Look for Stenhouse's Hollywood Casino 400 odds to end up closer to +400 by race time.
