NFL Power Rankings for Week 3: Welcome Back, Kansas City!

Evaluating teams before, during and after a given NFL season can be difficult. Some teams dramatically overperform their talent level, either due to easy opponents or sheer luck, while others fall on the flip side of those results. Fortunately, the experts at OddsShopper are here to do the hard work for you. By aggregating the rankings from several sources, differentiating them as public or sharp, and factoring in some data points of our own, we’ll be here to chart the rising and falling teams each week. It will often prove wise to fade the teams the public is overrating while backing those they are underrating. Let’s dive right into the NFL Power Rankings for Week 3.

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NFL Power Rankings for Week 3

Key Takeaways | NFL Power Rankings for Week 3

Same Teams at the Top & Bottom

The San Francisco 49ers are the top team in our power rankings after a nice, nearly double-digit win over the surprisingly plucky Los Angeles Rans. Likewise, the Arizona Cardinals remain the worst team in our power rankings after blowing a 20-point halftime lead to the New York Giants.

The Cardinals haven't looked as bad as most expect, but they're still a 0-2 team. The 49ers have looked better than some expected, especially since there were many who wondered whether Brock Purdy was a flash in the pan or the real deal. It's still early, but these two NFC West teams find themselves at the top and bottom of the NFL.

Fallers: Jets & Raiders

There were some questions about how good the Zach Wilson-led Jets would look with all their new pieces, and those expecting anything other than bad were disappointed with New York's big loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Jets plummet to 24th in our rankings despite remaining an above-average squad at public sources. New York ranks 30th in my expected points added (EPA)-based power metric.

The Raiders also tumbled after looking solid against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. They got absolutely demolished by a Buffalo Bills team that fell to the Jets in Week 1. Head coach Josh McDaniels may be a great offensive coordinator, but last week's loss brings him to an 18-29 record as a head coach. Las Vegas may be bringing in someone new this offseason.

Overrated: Commanders & Jets

The Commanders were one of our overrated teams last week, and although they did pull off an impressive comeback against the Broncos, they still surrendered a massive lead to the Broncos -- along with a hilarious hail mary that would've sent the game into overtime if Sean Payton had drawn up a better play for the two-point conversion. Expect them to fall after a Week 3 loss to the Bills.

We just talked about the Jets, but let's revisit them quickly. Week 1's win over the Bills was impressive, and the Cowboys have a tough defense, but we can't forget that Zach Wilson was the worst starting quarterback by EPA per play last year. Things won't get better for him against a tough New England Patriots defense in Week 3.

Risers: Seahawks & Falcons

The Seattle Seahawks bounced back after a surprising Week 1 loss to the Rams. For a little while, L.A. looked really good against San Francisco, making Seattle's loss look a little better. The Seahawks also pulled off a big win over the Detroit Lions, who were sixth in these rankings after their Week 1 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Seattle gets a very winnable game against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3.

The Falcons fly into the top 10 of our rankings with a big comeback win over the Green Bay Packers. Sure, not much was expected of Jordan Love and company, but Atlanta's offense executed an impressive fourth-quarter comeback, and running back Bijan Robinson looks every bit as good as advertised. The Falcons will cause some headaches with their complementary football.

Underrated: Chargers & Bills

The Los Angeles Chargers took a beating in the public rankings because of their 0-2 start. But L.A. is just seven points away from a 2-0 record, and while their early-season mistakes may cost them later, they're a much better team than 21st overall. They'll have a chance to reassert themselves at the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.

The Buffalo Bills may not be the next-most underrated team, but the difference between fourth in our rankings and seventh in the public rankings is a big one. Buffalo is a solid fourth in my EPA-based power metric with the fourth-best offense and ninth-best defense. Let's forgive them for a slow start and see how they fare against the Commanders this week.

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