The stacked UFC 300 card will come to a thunderous conclusion with this bout between Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill. Let’s get straight into our Alex Pereira-Jamahal Hill pick, odds and preview, breaking down one spot bettors should plan to exploit for UFC 300. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Alex Pereira-Jamahal Hill Pick, Odds and Preview
Pereira–Hill Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Pereira: -130 | Hill: +105
Pereira -5.5: -105 | Hill +5.5: -125
Over 1.5: -190 | Under 1.5: +145
Pereira–Hill Pick & Preview
Capping off the night, Alex Pereira (9-2) seeks to defend his Light Heavyweight belt against Jamahal Hill (12-1). Some fans hoped for a more star-studded fight to cap off such a card, but the fight should be a war on the feet that will cement both as premiere fighters in the UFC.
The books give a slight edge to Pereira, which doesn’t give him enough credit for his devastating power and fight IQ. I am riding with Pereira to defend his title, as Hill doesn’t have enough in his bag to justify near-even odds.
Pereira has one of the most interesting stories in the UFC. He had a strong background in kickboxing, where he first ran into Israel Adesanya, knocking him out years before starting in MMA.
According to Pereira, a large part of his decision to start in MMA and enter the UFC was based on an interview Adesanya gave that implied Pereira was just a nobody that couldn’t cut it in MMA. Izzy has never been more wrong.
In just his third UFC fight, Pereira duffed out former champ Sean Strickland. He then knocked Izzy out to get the Middleweight strap in his fourth fight.
While Adesanya got revenge in their next fight, Pereira didn’t lose a step, jumping up to Light Heavyweight to take down Jan Blachowicz before winning the belt against Jiri Prochazka.
He lands a startling 62% of his significant strikes, accuracy made especially more impressive given that he has fought Adesanya twice and Sean Strickland once in three of his last six fights, both of whom are among the best defensive strikers in the UFC. Further, his shot dispersion between the head, body and legs is near even, with 42% going to the head, 33% to the body, and 25% to the legs.
The evenness with which he lands his strikes is dangerous, as there’s only so much a fighter can do to defend all three areas at once. There will essentially always be openings for Pereira to exploit. Hill made particular note that he planned to check Pereira’s leg kicks, which are known for being both incredibly quick and damaging. Whether Hill can check them well is yet to be seen, but he will inevitably leave himself open to damage elsewhere if he devotes all his attention to the leg kicks.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
This isn’t to say Hill has no chance in this one. He lands a blistering 7.31 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 3.35 significant strikes per minute. His elite boxing is a hard puzzle to solve, but Pereira is one of the few people in the UFC who could be up to the task. He takes relatively little damage, only absorbing 3.65 significant strikes per minute at a 50% defense rate.
One factor that will play a role in each fighter’s approach is that Hill is a southpaw, meaning the fight over front-hand dominance will be paramount. However, this will also expose Hill’s lead leg calf to Pereira’s lead leg, meaning the leg kick will come quicker and less telegraphed than in an alternate stance. This happened each time Adesanya switched to southpaw in their two fights.
I expect this to be a great fight, but Pereira’s experience fighting against elite strikers in kickboxing and the UFC outmatches anything Hill has dealt with. Since Hill likely won’t engage in any long grappling exchanges, I think this experience will carry the day.
Best UFC Pereira-Hill Bet & Pick: Pereira ML -130 at DraftKings
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