With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Pick, Odds and Preview
Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Perez: +245 | Mokaev: -360
Perez +3.5: +155 | Mokaev +3.5: -210
Over 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5: -125
Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev Pick & Preview
In what should be a wrestling-heavy bout, Alex Perez (24-7) finds himself up against Muhammad Mokaev (11-0).
While there should be a lot of time on the ground, I would take this one to end inside the bell, as it sits at -165 currently.
There is a clear tendency in Mokaev’s UFC career to this point: he grinds on people until he finds a finish late. In five fights, he has four submission victories, with three coming in the third round. Though this is usually an indication the over may be worth playing, Mokaev’s ability to wear his opponents down is not to be overlooked.
In each of the fights that made it to the third round, Mokaev amassed over eight minutes of control time. Even for the most seasoned submission defense specialist, surviving a full fight in such conditions is a daunting task.
This task isn’t any easier for Perez, who fell victim to two submissions in his previous nine UFC fights. It’s especially difficult now as Perez has only fought once in the last three years, which was a losing effort to Alexandre Pantoja. While Perez only fights the top tier of the division, Mokaev will likely be able to smother him.
If Mokaev can’t do this, there isn’t much indication he can sustain a full fight simply through striking. Mokaev only lands 1.12 significant strikes per minute, compared to Perez’s 4.67. While this is likely due to the amount of control time Mokaev usually gains, he isn’t a pure enough striker to withstand an onslaught on the feet.
In their combined fourteen UFC fights, only three went the distance, for a finish rate of 78%. With the implied probability sitting at around 62%, there is an edge to be had in this one.
Best Alex Perez-Muhammad Mokaev pick: Fight to Go to Decision: No -165 at DraftKings
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