The upcoming UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill event on Saturday may present bettors with some valuable opportunities. Despite the fact that a few of the fighters may not be as familiar to bettors, the event promises to be full of excitement. Keep reading to uncover the UFC best bets for the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill, including a play on Themba Gorimbo.
UFC Best Bets for Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Dog of the Week: Gilbert Urbina Moneyline (+100, BetMGM)
Urbina dropped down to 170 pounds after fighting at 185, and he will have a height and reach advantage in this matchup. He took almost two years off to get his body right for 170. He is on a two-fight losing streak, but this is a step down for him here against Orion Cosce. Cosce took almost a year off and won by decision over Blood Diamond, who is nowhere near a UFC-level fighter. Cosce is also coming off many medical concerns, which include a neck injury and sickness for six months without training and a heart condition. This is a fight where Urbina should be better everywhere and have much better cardio. He has fought and gone the distance multiple times in his career, while Cosce has only been to decision once and his cardio looked awful. His cardio should fail him again, and Urbina will take over the fight.
Prop of the Week: Natalia Silva by KO/TKO (+240, FanDuel)
Silva has looked extremely impressive in her two UFC fights. Her striking has immensely improved after her almost three-year layoff prior to coming to the UFC. She has very fast hands and is dangerous with all her limbs. She throws with power and combinations and is also very dangerous when taken down, evidenced by her seven submissions. Victoria Leonardo, on the other hand, is primarily a wrestler with decent takedowns but some very bad striking. Her striking defense gets progressively worse as she tires in fights, and her takedowns will be stuffed here while she gets pieced up by Silva on the feet. Silva will land hard and often on Leonardo and eventually stop her in a similar fashion to how Manon Fiorot stopped her.
Best Play of the Week: Themba Gorimbo Moneyline (-120, DraftKings)
Gorimbo will have a big reach and height advantage here. Gorimbo is coming off his UFC debut in a loss to A.J. Fletcher in a fight where he had many good moments but made mistakes that ultimately cost him. He shoots fast double-leg takedowns and has a high success rate with them. He will have a big athletic advantage here, along with a big grappling edge. Takashi Sato is the much cleaner striker. The problem with Sato is that he is one dimensional with his strikes and primarily just throws a crisp one-two. His two wins in the UFC have not aged well. He beat Witt and Saunders, who are known for possibly the worst chins in the UFC. They both are no longer in the UFC. Gorimbo should get takedowns early and often, possibly threatening with some submissions. His long limbs should help him control his opponent, who has been submitted in three of his six losses.
