It’s time for our Bo Nickal-Cody Brundage pick, odds and preview — let’s break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit for UFC 300. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Bo Nickal-Cody Brundage Pick, Odds and Preview
Nickal-Brundage Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Nickal: -2000 | Brundage: +750
Nickal -3.5: -1400 | Brundage +3.5: +650
Over 1.5: +260 | Under 1.5: -360
Nickal-Brundage Pick & Preview
When it was announced that Bo Nickal (5-0) would take on Cody Brundage (10-5) at UFC 300, most people seemed interested to see one of the UFC’s biggest prospects enter the ring again. That interest turned to outrage when the fight was put on the main card.
Even with Nickal’s star on the rise, there are six former champions relegated to the prelims and early prelims in service of a fight that squares up two unranked fighters.
The choice doesn’t make much sense, as Nickal’s star power will immediately crater with a loss and won’t rise much even with a quick knockout. With all the controversy around this fight’s placement on the main card, everyone agrees that this will be a completely lopsided fight. There’s so little data on Nickal that it can be tough to forecast a bet to place. Nonetheless, I like the over 1.5 at such lopsided odds, even with Nickal’s history of quick finishes.
Cody Brundage is somehow a step up in Nickal’s competition. It’s not the leap in competition most people would see. However, even when removing Brundage’s DQ victory that was heading towards a dominant loss, his near .500 record far exceeds anything Nickal has faced to this point.
Including fights on the Contender Series, Nickal’s opponents are a combined 3-13 in their UFC careers, with only Jamie Pickett managing to snatch a victory, going 3-9 in his fights. Pickett is the only fighter to this point who didn’t fold instantly, lasting two minutes and 54 seconds against Nickal.
Brundage appears to be the better fighter than Pickett, and even in his five UFC losses, he was finished in the first round only twice. Overall, 40% of his losses passed the halfway point of the second round. The implied probability the fight goes past 1.5 rounds sits at 33%, with the heavy implication that Brundage gets finished in the first.
Nickal’s main arsenal is his elite wrestling. There is, perhaps, no current UFC fighter with a better collegiate career than Nickal. Three golds and a silver in national championships is nothing to scoff at, but there’s always a question as to whether this type of success will translate functionally in the Octagon.
On paper, it looks like it has. Nickal has three submission victories in the Octagon, and his knockout came from feinting the takedown to open up a clean overhand. However, he only secured one takedown on four attempts against Pickett, who has little collegiate wrestling experience.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
Brundage, on the other hand, had a respectable college wrestling career, making him the most experienced wrestler Nickal has faced. This will help him in defending the takedown, but it will also pay dividends with striking. Lesser wrestlers have to lower their guard against Nickal to sprawl even on the slightest of feints. Brundage shouldn’t have a similar problem.
This bet is largely based on data outside of these fighters. Only 23% of Middleweight fights ended in the first round in 2022. While the over extends to the second round, many people enter this fight expecting a first-round finish from Nickal. I expect Brundage to give Nickal a bit more trouble, both when wrestling and standing, before folding in the latter half of the fight.
Best UFC Nickal-Brundage Bet & Pick: Over 1.5 +260 at DraftKings
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