Few fighters last this long in the UFC, but, as of Saturday night, Jim Miller will have participated in UFC 100 (2009), UFC 200 (2016) and UFC 300 (2024). Let’s get into our Bobby Green-Jim Miller pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Bobby Green-Jim Miller Pick, Odds and Preview
Green-Miller Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Green: -195 | Miller: +145
Green -3.5: +110 | Miller +3.5: -145
Over 2.5: -130 | Under 2.5: +100
Green-Miller Pick & Preview
Jim Miller (37-17) makes it a trifecta for the UFC hundred cards by taking on Bobby Green (31-15-1) in the night’s second fight. Green is coming in on something of a skid, while Miller comes in on a bit of a run. I expect these trends to continue with Miller securing a submission victory.
Green has had several fun fights, but he can be his own worst enemy. He famously ragged on Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev for employing a grappling-oriented style because he saw it (and still sees it) as a lesser form of fighting. In reality, he’s telling on himself, showing that he would rather keep the fight on the feet, where he has more of an advantage.
Miller would be wise to take advantage of Green’s aversion to the ground, and I expect he will. Green tends to lose control of his game plan and emotions when frustrated, and on a stage where he likely wants to show his striking prowess, getting stuck in a gritty, grappling match will likely be enough to send him over the edge.
Green does respectably enough in grappling exchanges, stuffing his opponent’s takedowns 74% of the time. However, Green’s striking advantage over Miller will almost certainly force Miller to spam takedown attempts to get the fight where he can do his most damage.
Miller is a good grappler over his long UFC career. He averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time at a respectable 44% success rate. When he gets his opponents to the ground, he aggressively employs submission attempts to finish the fight early. He has 12 submission victories, good for 26% of his 42 UFC fights and 46% of his 26 victories.
The implied probability he wins by submission sits just under 15%. This is far too low, especially because I don’t see a path to victory for Miller outside of the submission.
Best UFC Green-Miller Bet & Pick: Miller by Submission +600 at DraftKings
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