The UFC rolls on with another respectable Fight Night card this evening. It’s no pay-per-view slate, that’s for sure, but there are plenty of betting angles worth getting some action on. Let’s get into our Bryan Battle-Ange Loosa pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks.
Bryan Battle-Ange Loosa Pick, Odds and Preview
Battle-Loosa Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Battle: -195 | Loosa: +145
Battle -3.5: +110 | Loosa +3.5: -145
Over 2.5: -210 | Under 2.5: +160
Battle-Loosa Pick & Preview
Bryan Battle (11-3) looks to maintain his one-loss record in the UFC against “The Last Ninja,” Ange Loosa (10-3). Though Loosa hasn’t yet found a finish in the UFC, I expect his toughness and pressure to carry the day against Battle.
Battle’s early success in the UFC is certainly impressive. Five wins in six efforts, four of which were finishes (two by submission and two by knockout) can’t be overlooked. However, his loss is a serious concern, even though he bounced back in his next two fights, as it provides a blueprint for future opponents to try to take advantage. Against Rinat Fakhretdinov, Battle was utterly dominated, getting controlled for 14:11 of the 15-minute fight, while only landing three significant strikes.
This is a blueprint that Loosa can look to exploit to grind out a decision victory. His last fight indicates that he wants to implement a more grappling-heavy approach, landing six takedowns on ten attempts.
Constantly threatening the takedown pairs nicely with his output on the feet, as he lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute. Loosa’s approach has a significant downside; he also absorbs 6.88 significant strikes per minute.
I’m generally skeptical about fighters who absorb more significant strikes than they land, but the downside of this approach is blunted a bit by Battle’s strike distribution. Battle lands 49% of his significant strikes to the body compared to 38% to the head.
Body shots no doubt have long-term impacts on fights and can end them quickly if they land right on the liver. However, without a picture-perfect shot, they don’t produce the knockouts that headshots do, particularly with the concern for a fighter’s safety if they absorb too much to the head.
If Loosa can walk through the pain that comes with body and leg shots, there is less chance that he will succumb to a knockout. On the other hand, Battle throws a relatively low amount of strikes, landing 4.52 significant strikes per minute. With his distribution, he doesn’t pressure opponents in the same way Loosa does, instead opting to time counters.
This can result in beautiful knockouts and dull a pressure-heavy fighter, but it’s a double-edged sword. As in the Israel Adesanya–Sean Strickland fight, a fighter can take a counter-striker out of their comfort zone if they can defend well and disrupt their opponent’s timing.
Loosa being pegged as a comfortable underdog is a solid line that I would play down close to a pick ‘em. He can make it a long night for Battle if he can disrupt Battle’s timing or implement a wrestling-heavy game plan.
Best UFC Battle-Loosa Bet & Pick: Loosa ML +145 at DraftKings
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