The UFC roars on with another solid Fight Night card this Saturday. It’s no UFC 300, but hey, we’re inching closer to that spectacular event. Let’s get into our Fernando Padilla-Luis Pajuelo pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Fernando Padilla-Luis Pajuelo Pick, Odds and Preview
Padilla-Pajuelo Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Padilla: -175 | Pajuelo: +135
Padilla -3.5: -110 | Pajuelo +3.5: -120
Over 1.5: -210 | Under 1.5: +160
Padilla-Pajuelo Pick & Preview
The first fight on the main card matches up relative newcomers Fernando Padilla (15-5) and Luis Pajuelo (8-1). I usually side with the fighter who isn’t making their debut, but Pajuelo’s aggression and power in the Contender Series make him a dangerous UFC rookie.
With the odds stacked slightly in Padilla’s favor, I’m riding with the newcomer to pull off the upset.
In all likelihood, this will be a high-octane striking battle between two fighters looking to put their name on the map in the Featherweight division. Neither fighter attempted a single takedown in their first few times in the Octagon. This marks a change for Padilla, who won eight times by submission before his time in the UFC. He could certainly change strategies and look for a takedown in this one, but we haven’t seen any indication that will be the case.
If it remains on the feet, Pajuelo will likely have the advantage. Of his eight professional wins, seven of them came by knockout.
It’s yet to be seen if he can keep up the pace he set in his first fight for more than a round, but if he can, he will be dangerous. Before knocking his last opponent out, Pajuelo landed a stunning 9.15 significant strikes per minute at a 61% clip.
Padilla isn’t a slowpoke on the feet either. He lands a solid 5.51 significant strikes per minute, but he does it on far worse efficiency, at only 38%.
His aggression and inefficiency lead him to get hit at a high rate, absorbing 5.81 significant strikes per minute.
With Pajuelo’s knockout power, Padilla will either need to take the fight to the ground or land strikes more efficiently if he wants to stay off the newcomer’s highlight reel.
With the odds against him, I anticipate Pajuelo will come out firing early against Padilla. Perhaps Padilla can find an edge if he takes the fight to the ground, but his refusal to attempt a takedown to this point makes me confident that it will likely remain on the feet for the most part.
Best UFC Padilla-Pajuelo Bet & Pick: Pajuelo ML +135 at DraftKings
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