The UFC roars on with a solid Saturday card for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2. It’s no UFC 300, but UFC 300 wouldn’t be special if it happened every weekend, would it? Let’s get into our Ignacio Bahamondes-Christos Giagos pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Ignacio Bahamondes-Christos Giagos Pick, Odds and Preview
Bahamondes-Giagos Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Bahamondes: -360 | Giagos: +245
Bahamondes -3.5: -185 | Giagos +3.5: +140
Over 1.5: -180 | Under 1.5: +140
Bahamondes-Giagos Pick & Preview
In the most lopsided fight of the night, Ignacio Bahamondes (14-5) takes on Christos Giagos (20-11). Bahamondes and Giagos differ in terms of the length of their fights, and there is a key inefficiency on the total market that we should be taking advantage of in this spot.
While the line for the under 2.5 is set to reflect the raw percentage of times these fighters’ fights end early, it doesn’t account for how often the heavy favorite’s wins — and the big underdog’s losses — end early. As such, there is a slight edge to be had on playing the under 2.5 rounds.
The odds are stacked heavily in Giagos’ favor coming into this one. It’s no surprise, as Giagos has been up and down since entering the UFC, attaining a 6-7 record. One consistent thing about Giagos’ fights is that they tend to be short. His average fight time in the UFC sits at 8:40.
This runs counter to Bahamondes, whose fights drag to the bell quite often. His average fight time is 13:11, which clears the over 2.5 rounds by 40 seconds. While it is a small sample size, four of Bahamondes’ six fights went over the halfway point of the third. Giagos’ fights only went over 2.5 rounds five of 13 times (38%).
Adding their fights together, they went over 2.5 rounds nine of 19 times for a rate of 47%. This aligns almost exactly with the implied probability of the line for the over, which sits at +110. However, the raw numbers are hard to rely on in such an expectedly lopsided fight.
Oddsmakers set the implied probability for a Bahamondes victory at 78%. When breaking down the length of their fights by wins and losses, the results reveal that Bahamondes’ fights tend to be shorter in victories while Giagos’ fights tend to be shorter in losses.
In Bahamondes’ four victories, two finished under 2.5 rounds, while both his losses went to the cards. On the flip side, two out of Giagos’ six losses went over (33%), while three of seven (42%) of his wins went over.
While both are small samples, taken together, they tell something potentially very significant: Bahamondes is likelier to win by finish than to lose by finish. At the same time, Giagos is likelier to lose by finish than to win by finish. With the odds heavily in Bahamondes’ favor, this is enough to tilt the balance of the under 2.5 rounds.
I don’t see much of an edge on any other bet in this one, so the edge on the under 2.5, no matter how slight, seems to give bettors the best chance. If it’s too slight for your taste, I suggest holding your money and enjoying this fight as a fan.
Best UFC Bahamondes-Giagos Bet & Pick: Under 2.5 -140 at DraftKings
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