With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Jesus Aguilar-Mateus Mendonca pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Jesus Aguilar-Mateus Mendonca Pick, Odds and Preview
Jesus Aguilar-Mateus Mendonca Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Flyweight
Aguilar: +110 | Mendonca: -140
Aguilar +3.5: -140 | Mendonca -3.5: +105
Over 2.5: +120 | Under 2.5: -150
Jesus Aguilar-Mateus Mendonca Pick & Preview
In the penultimate prelim fight, Jesus Aguilar (9-2) takes on Mateus Mendonca (10-2), with each looking for a statement win to stick around on the UFC roster.
While there isn’t much information to go off, Aguilar’s power combined with Mendonca’s lackluster performances have me leaning towards Aguilar as an underdog.
It hasn’t been a good start for Mendonca in the UFC. At all. Nonetheless, the books give him the edge over Aguilar for reasons I can’t quite understand.
First, the good: Mendonca won his fight in the Contender Series with a quick knockout over Ashiek Ajim. However, watching the fight back shows real deficiencies in Mendonca’s striking.
Even the shot that produced the knockout mostly missed its target before landing just behind Ajim’s ear, a shot that throws off its victim’s equilibrium, making it an effective one, even though it was not entirely planned.
Mendonca’s lack of technical striking came back to haunt him in his next two fights when he made the jump from the Contender Series to the UFC. In his first bout, he got a strong prospect in Javid Basharat, who thoroughly outclassed him. Mendonca was only able to muster a measly 29 significant strikes compared to Basharat’s 93. However, the striking difference is even more apparent when looking at each fighter’s efficiency. Mendonca only landed 32% of his significant strikes while Basharat landed a mind-boggling 73%. Mendonca was also taken down three of five times in the fight and controlled for over five minutes while only successfully landing two of his eleven takedown attempts.
Mendonca’s second UFC effort against Nate Maness wasn’t much better. He was once again dominated in striking, landing only three significant strikes compared to Maness’ 29. Once again Maness landed at a stunningly high rate, connecting on 82% of his significant strikes. Mendonca was eventually knocked out on the ground in the first round.
Aguilar similarly started well with a win on the Contender Series thanks to a perfectly set-up guillotine. While he stumbled making the jump to the UFC, succumbing to an armbar in the first round, it came against undefeated Tatsuro Taira, who finished two of his other five opponents. It didn’t take Aguilar long to bounce back from this loss, however, as he brutally knocked out Shannon Ross with just one punch. Ross hasn’t performed well in the UFC, losing all his fights by knockout, but the win was just what Aguilar needed to get himself back on track. Further, the punch had legitimate power behind it and could easily take down Mendonca, who has been susceptible on the feet against each of his prior opponents.
Ultimately, it doesn’t make much sense to me for the books to have Aguilar as the underdog. Until the books adjust and make him the favorite, I would ride with Aguilar for this one.
Jesus Aguilar-Mateus Mendonca Pick: Aguilar ML +110 at DraftKings
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