With a big UFC 297 day ahead, let’s get to our Neil Magny-Mike Malott pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Neil Magny-Mike Malott Pick, Odds and Preview
Neil Magny-Mike Malott Odds
UFC 297 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Malott: -390 | Magny: +260
Malott -3.5: -270 | Magny +3.5: +195
Over 2.5: +150 | Under 2.5: -190
Neil Magny-Mike Malott Pick & Preview
Projecting the bout between Neil Magny (28-12) and Mike Malott (10-1-1) is a tricky prospect.
Magny, a prolific decision fighter, made it to the cards in seventeen of his thirty-one UFC fights against some of the best fighters in the Welterweight division.
However, his weakness at defending against submissions plays right into Malott’s strength.
With Malott favored, it makes sense that the books list the over is in the plus money, but given Magny’s style, there appears to be an edge here on it.
Magny has reached the point in his career where the UFC puts him up against exciting prospects looking to jump into the higher reaches of the division.
While an unenviable position for older fighters, Magny is a perfect test for young fighters to test themselves given his weird style and his generally sharp ability both on the feet and in grappling.
Let’s dig deeper.
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Magny’s record reveals he looks to get the fight to the ground early and often, grinding his opponents down over long periods of control time. He secures 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 3.45 significant strikes per minute. In his last matchup, a decision loss against Ian Garry, Magny attempted to skip the step of taking his opponent down altogether, spending minutes on his backside and attempting to pull guard. While it didn’t get him the win, he avoided getting knocked out as a +380 underdog.
Despite his grappling-heavy approach, Magny has been submitted five times in his career, and he owns just two submission victories. In contrast, Malott’s prowess on the ground is well-documented. In his three UFC fights, he has two submission victories, with the third coming by knockout.
In total, he procured six submission victories in his twelve professional fights. Magny, however, is a leap in competition that will pose a much greater challenge when Malott seeks submissions.
Magny certainly has holes in his submission defense, but the fact he has been submitted in only 16% of his fights in over 205 minutes of combined control time throughout his career helps to contextualize this number. To put this number another way, Magny has spent nearly fourteen full three-round UFC fights on the ground while only falling victim to a submission five times.
While Malott procured a knockout victory against Mickey Gall, Magny’s striking defense is miles ahead of his, as Magny only absorbs 2.4 significant strikes per minute compared to Gall’s 4.25. Without much of a threat of a knockout against an experienced fighter, Malott will need to secure yet another submission to end the round before the halfway point of the final round. Given Magny’s ability to drag fights to the bell, it seems unlikely he will succumb early on.
For his part, Magny doesn’t pose much of a threat to end the fight early. He only has seven wins before the final bell, five of which came before the halfway point of the last round. With Magny listed as a comfortable underdog, there doesn’t appear to be much of a chance that he finishes the fight early.
Best Neil Magny-Mike Malott Pick: Over 2.5 +150 at DraftKings
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