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Categories MMA

Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson Pick, Odds and Preview

Updated December 17, 2023 | 7:01 am CDT by Hunter Litterio
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Odds & Picks

With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson, pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks

Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson Pick, Odds and Preview

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Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson Odds

Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Lightweight
Pimblett: -330| Ferguson: +230
Pimblett -3.5: -185 | Ferguson +3.5: -140
Over 2.5: +100| Under 2.5: -130


Paddy Pimblett-Tony Ferguson Pick & Preview

The fight between Paddy Pimblett (20-3) and Tony Ferguson (26-9) was a head-scratcher when it was booked, and so it remains.

While it is true the young eat the old in the UFC, there doesn’t seem to be much for Paddy to gain from beating a skidding Ferguson — but he has quite a lot to lose.

With heavy odds in his favor, Pimblett’s inability to effectively defend himself leaves bettors willing to trust Ferguson to return to form with an edge.

In his controversial decision victory over Jared Gordon, Paddy employed an interesting defensive technique to confuse his opponent called “leading with his chin.”

Jokes aside, Paddy’s deficiencies in striking defense are well documented: he absorbs about 3.5 strikes per minute at a paltry 41% defense rate.

This doesn’t tell the entire story, as many of the shots that Gordon landed struck Paddy without so much as a flinch to lessen the impact even slightly.

Ferguson, despite his recent skid, still holds some of the pop in his hands he was known for in his younger days, and despite getting thoroughly outclassed by Bobby Green in his last fight, he still landed some hefty shots to stun Green in the earlier rounds.


Let's dive into UFC 296: Edwards-Covington to break down the odds and make our picks, including a wager on Tony Ferguson...

Looking for more UFC 296 picks? OddsShopper’s tools have identified this pick from the prelims as a slight +EV wager. For more picks — including several more profitable ones on other sports — subscribe today! We also have a parlay builder, premium Discord and an expert picks page.


I’m not sure how much credence we should lend to Ferguson’s six-fight losing streak, as those fights came against the top end of the division and proven veterans. Even with such a poor stretch, Ferguson has produced a knockout win in 22% of his UFC fights, well above the implied odds of 14% given by DraftKings.

Plimbett’s biggest advantage will likely come from his submission grappling, but all evidence points to him keeping the fight on the feet, as he has only attempted eight takedowns in his four bouts, landing only two of them. If both fighters stay upright and Plimbett doesn’t significantly improve his striking defense, Ferguson will have plenty of chances to end the fight in an instant.

Best UFC Pimblett-Ferguson Bet & Pick: Ferguson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ +600 at DraftKings

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