With the latest UFC 290 odds, using industry-leading tools and data, we make our Robert Whittaker-Dricus Du Plessis prediction for what should be an exciting fight.
The ultimate gatekeeper in the middleweight division, Robert Whittaker returns to face Dricus Du Plessis as a -400 favorite this weekend. Whittaker comes in with a 25-6 professional record, having lost to only Israel Adesanya since 2014. He most recently defeated Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision in September. Meanwhile, Du Plessis is 19-2 in his career and 5-0 in the UFC. He defeated Derek Brunson via second round knockout in March.
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UFC 290 Odds: Robert Whittaker-Dricus Du Plessis Prediction
Robert Whittaker-Dricus Du Plessis Odds
Robert Whittaker: -400 | Dricus Du Plessis: +300
An extremely well rounded fighter, Whittaker comes from a striking background, but he also holds a black belt in BJJ. He lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.26 himself at 61% striking defense. On the ground, he lands 0.82 takedowns per bout, but he defends them at 84% himself. Of his 25 wins, he has nine knockouts and five submissions. Whittaker also has a strength of schedule advantage, having done battle with the division’s best for years now.
Du Plessis is particularly interesting for this division, because there’s no one else left for Adesanya to beat. He comes from a kickboxing background, but Du Plessis has eight knockouts and 10 submission to his name. As for output, he lands 6.72 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.73 himself. On the ground, he averages 2.83 takedowns per bout, but defends them at 50%. Fighters have been reluctant to shoot takedowns on Du Plessis, so that number remains fraudulent. His level of competition isn’t quite as strong as Whittaker’s. He owns wins over Brad Tavares, Darren Till, and Derek Brunson, but there is a very real possibility that all three are washed at this point.
Ultimately, Whittaker deserves to be the clear favorite here, but a -400 number completely discounts Du Plessis. This is a fighter with elite finishing potential, capable of hurting Whittaker at some point. For that reason, a sprinkle on Du Plessis remains the top play here.
