Using the latest UFC Fight Night odds, as well as industry-leading tools, we’re set to make our Mohammed Usman-Jake Collier pick and prediction.
Mohammed Usman draws Jake Collier as a -130 favorite. Usman is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Zac Pauga and Junior Tafa. Collier will fight for his roster spot after three straight losses, most recently dropping a decision to Martin Buday back in April.
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Mohammed Usman-Jake Collier Pick and Prediction
Best UFC Fight Night Picks: Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier Odds
Mohammed Usman: Opened -150, Now -130 | Jake Collier: Opened +125, Now +110
Usman has a 9-2 professional record featuring four knockouts and two submissions. He has only been finished once, which came via submission to Brandon Sayles in the PFL. Usman prefers to grapple, averaging 1.46 takedowns per bout and 15% accuracy. He has never faced a takedown attempt in the UFC, as he generally has superior grappling credentials. On the feet, he lands 0.92 significant strikes per minute while eating 2.62. Usman has significant strength of schedule concerns, but his opponent does as well.
Collier has a 13-9 professional record highlighted by five knockouts and four submissions. He has now been knocked out four times and submitted once. His durability has been decent in the UFC, and Collier has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, but he only lands 0.79 takedowns per bout. On the feet, he lands 5.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.01. Collier has been in three close fights in his last three. He has only been out-landed 243-238 but dropped two decisions. Collier also was knocked out by Chris Barnett, but he scored a knockdown prior to the loss.
While this is a low-level heavyweight fight, Collier has the skills to test Usman on the feet and the mat. Usman has superior wrestling, but Collier has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu to put Usman in tricky positions. He also has enough standup power to trade with Usman on the feet.