The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs roll on, and only Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick have punched their tickets to the Round of 12. Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Brad Keselowski are all but mathematically locked in, while Martin Truex Jr., the regular-season championship, finds himself below the cut line. We’ve got the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturday, September 16 at 7:30 p.m. ET from Bristol. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Bristol — we’re backing Ford and longshot Ryan Preece.
NASCAR is one of the greatest sports to bet on! This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager! You can also check out my guide to successful NASCAR betting.
NASCAR Predictions for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol: Race Preview
Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Race Preview for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol
Bristol Motor Speedway is a steeply banked concrete oval that measures only a half-mile long. The venue is NASCAR's premier short track. Bristol's concrete surface has held only one Cup Series race over the last few seasons because of the Bristol Dirt Race, so we'll have to lean on results from comparator tracks to handicap this event. The good news is that we've got plenty of data from short-track races to use in that process.
The NASCAR Cup Series has run six short track races already this year: Phoenix 1, Richmond 1, Martinsville 1, Dover, New Hampshire and Richmond 2. Hendrick Motorsports drivers dominated early in the season, sweeping the first three events and nearly winning at Dover. But then the field caught up -- Toyota dominated at New Hampshire before Ford and Toyota dominated at Richmond. No Chevrolet driver led a lap at Richmond 2, the most recent short-track race.
When digging into the raw green-flag speed data, it becomes obvious that Ford started slow but figured things out as the year went on. A Ford driver recorded the fastest green-flag speed at Martinsville 1, Dover and Richmond 2. The manufacturer's lone failure after the year's first two short track races came at New Hampshire, where Ford drivers still recorded the second through fourth fastest green-flag speeds.
NASCAR Predictions for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol: Best Bets
NASCAR Bristol Prediction No. 1: Ford Wins Again
Last year saw Chris Buescher pilot his No. 17 Ford to victory lane -- cashing a 125-1 ticket for us in the process. I expect another Ford driver to win at Bristol again this year, largely due to the speed we've seen out of the manufacturer in recent short-track events. At Richmond 2, the most recent short-track event, Ford drivers owned four of the top six spots by green flag speed and recorded three of the six best driver ratings.
Three Ford teams have a solid shot to win this race. RFK Racing took the checkered flag here last year and just flat-out dominated at Richmond, leading 190 of the 400 laps. Stewart-Haas Racing has run exceptionally well at short tracks, too, leading the most laps at Martinsville 1 and recording the fastest green-flag speed at both Martinsville 1 and Richmond 2. Team Penske should also run well -- the team prioritizes short-track performance, and this year's bad numbers are an outlier.
You'll find Ford priced between +190 (34.5%) at DraftKings and +230 (30.3%) at Bet365. The books are making a mistake by favoring Chevrolet despite their poor recent short-track form. By investing in Ford at this number, you're getting exposure to plenty of premium drivers on the outright markets: Brad Keselowski at 8-1 (11.1%), Chris Buescher, Ryan Blaney and Kevin Harvick at 12-1 (7.7%) along with Joey Logano at 16-1 (5.9), getting us well over the implied probability available at Bet365. If you're not able to wager there, Ford is priced at +210 (32.2%) at Caesars.
New to Caesars? Check out the new Caesars Sportsbook promo code: if you bet $50, you will receive $250 in bonus bets as weekly bonuses of $50 when you sign up by clicking here.
NASCAR Bristol Bet: Ford +230 for 0.5 Units at Bet365
NASCAR Bristol Prediction No. 2: Ryan Preece Steals a Win
The books are just writing Ryan Preece and the No. 41 Ford off this week. That's a massive error. Preece ran well at the L.A. Clash at the Coliseum this year, the shortest track on the Cup Series schedule, leading 43 of the 150 laps before suffering a mechanical failure that took him out of the running. He should've won that race.
Preece has had a few other near-misses this season. He won the pole at Martinsville and led 135 of the 400 laps, only losing the lead because of a pit road penalty. He also ran incredibly well at Richmond 2 -- he qualified 11th, worked his way up to fifth and recorded the fastest green-flag speed to go with the sixth-best driver rating.
You'll find Preece priced at a shockingly long 150-1 (0.7%) at Caesars. He is certainly a long shot, but he has put together enough good runs at short tracks this year to deserve a much shorter number. He should probably be in the 50-1 (2%) range, which is where he was trading for the Clash at the Coliseum.
NASCAR Bristol Bet: Ryan Preece 150-1 for 0.05 Units at Caesars
