We got back in the winner’s column at Pocono with a manufacturer bet. Insider Access even got Hamlin at 11-2 as well. I’m looking to roll that momentum forward into this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race. We’ve got the Cook Out 400 on Sunday, July 30 at 3 p.m. ET from Richmond Raceway. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Richmond — we’re riding with the Chevrolets, but Kevin Harvick is a decent play, too.
This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel. Fortunately, you can get two free months of OddsShopper Insider Access just by signing up for BetMGM and placing your first wager!
NASCAR Predictions for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway: Race Preview
How Should We Handicap Richmond?
Richmond Raceway is a short, flat oval, not unlike several other tracks on the Cup Series schedule, including Phoenix, Martinsville and New Hampshire. We’ve also seen a race here already this season back in the spring, which gives us four comparator data points to use when handicapping the Cook Out 400 at Richmond this weekend.
The comparator data points carried plenty of value last year. Average driver ratings between Phoenix, Richmond 1, Martinsville and New Hampshire had a 79.7% correlation with the driver ratings at Richmond 2. Four drivers recorded average ratings of 100 or more, and three went for a rating of 100-plus at Richmond, including the race winner, Kevin Harvick.
This year presents us with a similarly condensed set of drivers to choose from. Four drivers recorded driver ratings above 100 across the comparator events: Kyle Larson (122.4), Kevin Harvick (103.9), Denny Hamlin (101.7) and Martin Truex Jr. (101.4). William Byron (99.9) just barely missed the cut, but it’s unwise to exclude him. Byron won the first event on a short, flat oval this year and ran incredibly well at Richmond.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the drivers to fare best in our metric all sit atop the oddsboard. Truex comes in at a best price of 5-1 (16.7%) but can be found at shorter numbers. However, because his best performance (New Hampshire) came in a race featuring a different tire set-up, I’m inclined to fade him at that price. Hamlin isn’t far behind at 6-1 (14.3%), and Larson is just behind him at 13-2 (13.3%). Harvick and Byron can both be found at betting odds of 9-1 (10%) for Richmond.
NASCAR Predictions for the Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway: Best Bets
Kevin Harvick is Inefficiently Priced
I don’t love the idea of buying any Stewart-Haas Racing driver at odds of 9-1 (10%) or shorter, but I’m willing to do so for Kevin Harvick at this track specifically. It helps that other books have him as short as 13-2 (13.3%). Harvick took a similarly slow No. 4 Ford to victory lane in this event last year. He also ranks second in average driver rating across the four comparators and is one of two drivers to record triple-digit ratings in at least three of the events.
Fords, especially those out of the SHR stable, have struggled this year, but short, flat ovals are somewhat of an equalizer. SHR dominated at Martinsville by leading 264 of the 400 laps. Ryan Preece, Chase Briscoe and Kevin Harvick all contributed at least 20 to the team’s total. While they couldn’t pull off the win, Preece told Speedway Digest in an interview before New Hampshire that the team was focusing on Richmond. Let’s grab the off-market 9-1 (10%) via Bet365 before that number comes off the board.
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Best NASCAR Bet: Kevin Harvick 9-1 for 0.18 Units at Bet365
Fade Toyota, Back Chevrolet
We cashed a +140 (41.7%) ticket on Toyota last week (and Insider Access cashed an 11-2 (15.4%) ticket on Denny Hamlin, too), but we’re not trusting them to pull off their third-straight win this weekend. Instead, I have to get some action on the Chevrolet camp for a pretty obvious reason: Kyle Larson. William Byron helps move the needle, too, as does Chevrolet’s majority control of the field, but Larson is the primary reason why I advise slamming this manufacturer bet for Richmond at +165 (37.7%).
Heading into New Hampshire, the Chevrolets had not lost a race in the new short-track package. They still haven’t lost a race in the new short-track package with this tire set-up on the car. We saw Byron and Larson dominate at Phoenix in the spring before dominating some more at Richmond and North Wilkesboro. This tire set-up was also in use at Gateway, which Kyle Busch, another Chevrolet driver, won, but we did not see the same short-track package in use at that facility.
Best NASCAR Bet: Chevrolet +165 for 0.39 Units at Caesars
