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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the 2023 Toyota Owners 400

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for another event on a short, flat oval. Bettors should expect a similar race to the one we saw at Phoenix. With qualifying and practice rained out, we’ll have to lean heavily on Phoenix to handicap this event. The top NASCAR matchup and prop bets for Sunday’s action include Kyle Larson, who looks like a screaming value on the head-to-head markets.

I handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and you can read about my bets here. Only members of OddsShopper Insider Access will get access to my full betting card, but I will include most of it in articles and on our YouTube Channel.

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Best NASCAR Prop & Matchup Bets for the Toyota Owners 400

Has RFK Racing Finally Recovered?

Few drivers have a more impressive resume at Richmond than Brad Keselowski. In 26 starts, Keselowski has two wins, six top-5s and 12 top-10s. He has led the fifth-most laps at Richmond of all active Cup Series drivers.

Before Keselowski left Team Penske for RFK Racing, he routinely scored top-10 results at Richmond. Between 2016 and 2021, Keselowski scored eight top-10 results in 13 starts (61.5%), including two 11th-place results with an average finish of 8.4.

Keselowski ran well at Richmond for RFK Racing last year. He scored a top-10 in both Stage 1 and 2 in the spring before finishing 13th. He also finished fourth in Stage 1 in the fall before finishing 15th.

The No. 6 Ford looked fast at Phoenix. Keselowski qualified fourth and scored a top-10 result in both stages before finishing 18th. He even led a lap in the process. He’ll start back in the 20s on Sunday after qualifying got rained out, but I expect him to compete for another top-10 finish here.

Best NASCAR Top 10 Bet: Brad Keselowski +100 for 0.33 Unit at Bet365

Can Kyle Larson Outrun Kevin Harvick?

I must be missing something with this line. I would have listed Kyle Larson as the favorite on the outright markets, but the books have given both William Byron and Kevin Harvick better odds. That’s led to Larson sitting at +100 just to beat Harvick at DraftKings Sportsbook.

This line could prove disastrous for the books. The same car that led the most laps at Phoenix last spring also led the most laps at Richmond a few weeks later. That honor belonged to Ryan Blaney last year, and it belongs to Larson this year. Larson led 201 laps in that event before finishing fourth, one spot ahead of Harvick.

Harvick scored strong finishes at Richmond last year, but he never had dominant speed. He scored a second-place finish in the spring after a smart strategy call and won in the summer after coming on strong late in the race. Larson finished behind him in both events, but Hendrick Motorsports generally lacked speed at short, flat ovals last year. However, their dominant showing at Phoenix shows that they have made some serious progress.

Best NASCAR Matchup Bet: Kyle Larson vs. Kevin Harvick +100 for 1.67 Unit at DraftKings 

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