After winning last weekend’s Cup Series race at Auto Club, Kyle Busch will run all three races in Las Vegas this weekend. He’ll drive the No. 51 Chevrolet for his own team in the Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200. Action will get underway on Friday, Mar. 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET — and our expert is here to make his Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 predictions to help you find the best NASCAR Truck Series bets for this weekend.
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Best NASCAR Truck Series Bets & Prediction | Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 | Las Vegas
Will Kyle Busch Notch His 63rd Truck Series Win?
The Craftsman Truck Series still hasn’t run a race away from a superspeedway, so this weekend’s event will reveal much about how this season should go. Question marks abound after a wild offseason that saw Kyle Busch Motorsports and ThorSport Racing leave Toyota for Chevrolet and Ford, respectively, to be replaced by David Gilliland’s TRICON Garage.
Those offseason moves could shake up the Truck Series — especially at a track like Las Vegas. Of the five Truck Series events run at high-speed intermediates last year, Toyotas took the checkered flag three times. The three KBM Toyotas combined to lead 86 of the 134 laps run in Vegas last year, with Kyle Busch finishing a close second to Chandler Smith.
It’s unclear how the move to Chevrolet will affect KBM. A Toyota has won nine of the last 10 races held at Las Vegas, but KBM accounted for five of those wins, and Busch himself accounted for three. John Hunter Nemechek, who will drive the No. 17 Toyota for TRICON on Friday night, owns the shortest odds of any Toyota driver at 8-1. Corey Heim slots in right behind him at 10-1.
Unfortunately, the books aren’t handling the uncertainty well. Especially Caesars Sportsbook. Their hold for Friday’s action sits at an astronomical 53%. If Busch withdrew and Caesars did not adjust their odds, they would still make money with a 9% hold. Backing Busch at 3-2 is a terrible investment with so much uncertainty surrounding the manufacturer changes. I’m passing on the outright markets.
Who Scores a Top-5 Finish?
With Busch and Nemechek in the field, bettors can probably cross off two of the five top-5 spots available. That still leaves three more to fill. Last year’s champion, Zane Smith, slots in behind only Busch (-115). Ross Chastain (+100) also owns shorter odds than Nemechek (+115). Corey Heim (+140), a TRICON garage driver, and Ty Majeski (+170), a ThorSport driver, own the next-best odds.
Toyota Racing Development takes its investment in the Craftsman Truck Series seriously. That’s why KBM and ThorSport found so much success in recent years. With TRD engines under the hood, it’s likely that TRICON will have an edge in speed over the field — at least to start the season. TRD-powered trucks led 74.6% of the laps in last year’s Las Vegas race.
Busch will be hard to beat, but none of TRICON’s drivers need to actually finish ahead of him to score a top-5 finish. Let’s spread a half unit between Nemechek, Kaz Grala (+500) and Tanner Gray (+650). Gray already has two top-5 finishes to his name in five starts at Las Vegas. Grala has one in two starts. Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!
Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek Top 5 (+115 for 0.3 Unit) at Caesars
Also Bet: Kaz Grala Top 5 (+500 for 0.1 Unit) at Caesars
Also Bet: Tanner Gray Top 5 (+650 for 0.1 Unit) at Caesars
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