After a one-week hiatus, the NASCAR Xfinity Series returns to action at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend. Our betting card for the most recent Xfinity Series event was one lap away from going 3-0, but we still notched a profit thanks to a top-5 finish for Austin Hill. The Alsco Uniforms 300 will get underway on Saturday, May 27 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch stands out as a sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bet at Charlotte, just not on the outright markets, and he features heavily in my predictions for this race.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Alsco Uniforms 300 at Charlotte: Race Preview
What Can We Expect at Charlotte This Year?
The Xfinity Series gets tricky to handicap when Cup Series regulars dip their toes into its waters. This week, Kyle Busch will pilot the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing. Ty Gibbs takes over the No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. Gibbs has finished no worse than second in his two Xfinity Series starts here and has a win. Busch owns a record nine Xfinity Series wins here in 26 starts. Unsurprisingly, the two drivers are co-favorites for this weekend’s event.
But are Gibbs and Busch that much better than the field? My numbers suggest they aren’t. We’ve seen the No. 10 Chevrolet struggle this season, even with Busch at the wheel. Likewise, the Toyota camp didn’t look that impressive at the high-speed Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Although results from Las Vegas aren’t perfectly predictive of outcomes at Charlotte Motor Speedway, teams generally must show speed in Vegas if they want to be fast at Charlotte.
Let’s look at the last four years (not counting the COVID-19 altered 2020 season) for some evidence. In 2019, Tyler Reddick dominated early in Vegas for Richard Childress Racing before crashing out. He went on to win in Charlotte. In 2021, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers recorded the second- and third-best driver ratings in Las Vegas and led 52% of the laps. Ty Gibbs, who wasn’t entered in the desert, won in Charlotte. And in 2022, JR Motorsports drivers scored the first- and third-best driver ratings in Vegas while leading 57% of the laps. Josh Berry went on to win in Charlotte.
The results from this year’s event in Las Vegas point to some value in a few spots. Busch’s Kaulig Racing teammate, Chandler Smith, recorded the best driver rating (136.4) and led the most laps but finished third. Busch finished fourth and posted the fifth-best rating (111.6). Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Hill scored the second-best rating (126.3) and won. JR Motorsports’ Justin Allgaier scored the third-best rating (124.3) and finished second. Chevrolets finished first through six.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the Alsco Uniforms 300 at Charlotte: Best Bets
Where is the Respect for Kaulig Racing?
If you assign any predictive weight to this year’s event at Las Vegas, then you’d be surprised to see the market so bearish on Chandler Smith. Sure, Smith hasn’t had the best few races of late. Those events aren’t great comparators for Charlotte, which has a smooth, banked surface conducive to high-speed racing and not conducive to that much tire wear. Smith never led at Charlotte in the Truck Series, but his strong start to the year in Las Vegas warrants outright odds shorter than the 22-1 (4.4%) at BetMGM.
Smith’s teammate, Kyle Busch, also has a surprising amount of value on the head-to-head markets. Although most books list Gibbs and Busch as co-favorites, DraftKings Sportsbook has Busch listed as a +105 (48.8%) underdog to Gibbs this weekend. Gibbs is an impressive young driver with a great resume, but Busch is the winningest Xfinity Series driver in this track’s history, and his team showed more speed than Joe Gibbs Racing did at Las Vegas.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Chandler Smith +2200 for 0.05 Units at BetMGM
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Kyle Busch vs. Ty Gibbs +105 for 0.55 Units at DraftKings
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Can Carson Hocevar Do Anything Here?
Carson Hocevar, a Truck Series regular, will drive the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports on Saturday. Hocevar piloted the No. 77 to a sixth-place finish at Darlington two weeks ago in this team’s debut. While his Xfinity Series resume is now just two races long, Hocevar’s time in the Truck Series should give him more than enough experience to bring this car home inside the top-5 spots.
Hocevar is yet to win at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Truck Series, but he almost did twice. He finished second here in 2021 after leading five laps and finished 16th after leading 57 last year because of a late-race incident with Ryan Preece. Hocevar recorded the best driver rating that night. He owns a similarly impressive resume at Charlotte’s sister track, Texas Motor Speedway. He won the spring race there last month and finished fourth there last May.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Carson Hocevar Top-5 +600 for 0.15 Units at Caesars
