Last weekend’s Xfinity Series race in Portland saw us almost cash a +170 ticket on Parker Kligerman, but his late-race aggression cost us. Fortunately, we’ve got another road course race this weekend to get the coin back. The DoorDash 250 will get underway on Saturday, June 10 at 8 p.m. ET. A.J. Allmendinger stands out as a sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bet for Sonoma as he does at every road course.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the DoorDash 250 at Sonoma: Race Preview
Which Non-Regulars are in the Field?
One of the most chaotic elements about betting on the NASCAR Xfinity Series is the rotational nature of the sport — several teams use a mix of drivers who don’t compete every week. Unlike last week, this week’s entry list contains plenty of Cup Series stars, dramatically altering the oddsboard. The series also cycles through tracks more often than Cup, something that is at play this weekend since it has never run at Sonoma Raceway before.
The three favorites for the DoorDash 250 are all full-time Cup Series drivers. A.J. Allmendinger will take over the No. 10 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing, Kyle Larson will drive the No. 17 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports and Ty Gibbs will pilot the No. 19 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. They all slot in at odds of 5-1 or shorter.
But that’s not where the news stops — Ty Dillon takes the reins of the No. 4 Chevrolet for JD Motorsports, Daniel Suarez will steer the No. 07 Chevrolet for SS-Green Light Racing, Aric Almirola will take the No. 28 Ford for RSS Racing and, finally, Ross Chastain will drive the No. 91 Chevrolet for DGM Racing. Those cars aren’t especially competitive, but the drivers have skewed the oddsboard, nonetheless.
Road Courses: What Do We Know So Far?
We’ve seen two Xfinity Series events on road courses this year. Back in March, plenty of Cup Series drivers were in the field for the race at the Circuit of the Americas. None were in the field last weekend at Portland International Raceway. Allmendinger took the checkered flag in the No. 10 in March; Cole Custer won in the No. 00 Ford last weekend.
Of the drivers who participated in both events, only two, Sheldon Creed and Justin Allgaier, recorded driver ratings above 100 at both tracks. Creed, who drives the No. 2 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing, has led 63 of the 123 (51.2%) laps run on road courses this year. Chevrolet drivers led every lap at the Circuit of the Americas and all but seven of them in Portland.
While Chevrolet has a massive advantage probability-wise because so much of the Xfinity Series field runs the manufacturer, it’s still noteworthy that seven of the 10 possible top-5 finishers at both road courses drove bowties. Neither Ford nor Toyota has recorded the best or second-best driver rating at a road course this season. Their best performers in the metric, Gibbs and Custer, recorded ratings of 117.4 and 117.6, respectively.
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NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for the DoorDash 250 at Sonoma: Best Bets
Why Do The Books Hate John Hunter Nemechek?
I know that I just spent several paragraphs discussing Chevrolet’s recent dominance at road courses, but that doesn’t justify what the books are doing to John Hunter Nemechek this weekend. We can get the current Xfinity Series points lead at odds of 22-1 outright at DraftKings, 6-1 to get a top-3 and 3-1 to get a top-5 at Bet365 and Tipico. Those numbers are not efficient.
Although Nemechek hasn’t dominated at any road courses this year, he has run well. He finished 27th at the Circuit of the Americas after starting sixth and running close to the front for most of the day. He then finished 10th at Portland after starting fourth, leading two laps and finishing the first two stages in second.
Further, unlike most Xfinity Series regulars, Nemechek just ran at Sonoma last year in the Truck Series. He started seventh and finished eighth in a field that featured Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman. Nemechek has one win and five top-5 finishes at road course to his name in the Truck Series in 11 starts.
With Nemechek racing for points, it makes too much sense not to lock him in on the top-5 markets this weekend. This market is only available at Bet365 and Tipico Sportsbook currently. If you haven’t signed up for Bet365, you can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $1 wager! Likewise, if you haven’t signed up with Tipico, you can get $150 in bonus bets — and your name on Zane Smith’s truck — with a $38 deposit.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: John Hunter Nemechek Top 5 3-1 for 0.25 Units at Tipico
Should We Get Action on A.J. Allmendinger?
The best price for Allmendinger on the outright markets, the 3-1 at BetMGM, isn’t a great deal with both Larson and Gibbs entered. However, the best price for him on the top-3 markets, the -120 at Bet365, is a steal, especially when compared to the rest of the market. DraftKings has this bet priced at -135; Caesars lists it at -170.
The odds are somehow too short on Allmendinger relative to his historical performance at road courses. Allmendinger has run 22 road course races for Kaulig Racing since 2019. He owns 10 wins, 15 top-3s and 18 top-5s through that span. His top-3 rate of 68.1% far outpaces the -120 (54.5%) at Bet365.
Those worried about Gibbs and Larson on the entry list should note that all of Allmendinger’s Xfinity Series road course races, both this season and last, featured Gibbs on the track — yet Allmendinger still amassed five wins and six top-3s in seven races. Gibbs is also yet to make a national series start at Sonoma.
Allmendinger also competed against Larson twice and recorded one top-3 at Watkins Glen and a sixth-place finish at Road America. He doesn’t even need to beat Gibbs or Larson to cash this bet, so I recommend buying this Xfinity Series bet for the DoorDash 250 at Bet365.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: A.J. Allmendinger Top-3 -120 for 0.6 Units at Bet365