Austin Hill scored yet another superspeedway win last weekend, and now the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, for the first road course event of the year. The Pit Boss 250 will get underway on Saturday, March 25 at 5 p.m. ET. Parker Kligerman and A.J. Allmendinger stand out as sharp NASCAR Xfinity Series bets at COTA.
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Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets & Prediction | Pit Boss 250 | COTA
Is This A.J. Allmendinger’s Race to Lose?
A quick look at the entry list for Saturday’s Pit Boss 250 reveals several Cup Series regulars, including Aric Almirola, William Byron, Ty Gibbs and A.J. Allmendinger. The sportsbooks expect one of those drivers to win — Allmendinger, Byron and Gibbs all own odds of 5-1 or shorter; Almirola, not a historically great road course driver, slots in at a whopping 100-1.
Allmendinger is one of the greatest active road course drivers in NASCAR, and his appearance on the entry list should terrify the competition. The former open-wheel driver has won seven of his last 15 Xfinity Series starts at road courses, good for a 46.7% hit rate that exceeds his implied odds available at BetMGM, which are 28.6%.
Although it’s unappealing to wager on a driver trading at such a low price, Allmendinger is the clear top option for Saturday’s event. One of his competitors, William Byron, failed to lead a single Cup Series lap at a road course last year. He put together a solid run at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series but couldn’t finish the job. Likewise, Gibbs finished ahead of Allmendinger just once across six road-course starts last year.
With NASCAR removing automatic cautions between stages, Allmendinger should benefit from a lack of contrived stage strategy. That will help him maintain the strong starting position he will likely earn in qualifying — Allmendinger started fourth at COTA last year and earned a top-5 starting position in all but one of the road-course races for which he made a qualifying run last year.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: A.J. Allmendinger 5-2 for 0.25 Unit at BetMGM
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Which Drivers Can Score a Surprise Top-5?
Although the major teams won every road course event in the Xfinity Series last year, a few surprises broke through here and there. Cole Custer finished third at COTA for SS Green Light Racing. Ross Chastain brought the No. 92 DGM Racing Chevrolet home in fourth at the Indy Road Course, with Chase Briscoe scoring a top-5 for SS Green Light right behind him. Kaz Grala scored a top-5 for Big Machine Racing at Watkins Glen.
A few names jump out as possible candidates for a surprise top-5. Parker Kligerman has often run well at road courses in the Xfinity and Truck Series and even scored a surprise win for Henderson Racing at Mid-Ohio last year. He looks underpriced at 3-1, especially after Grala brought this car home for a top-5 at the Glen last year. Jade Buford even piloted Kligerman’s No. 48 to an eighth-place finish at COTA in 2022.
Aric Almirola also stands out at 11-1. The Cup Series veteran takes over the No. 08 Chevrolet for SS Green Light Racing this weekend. Although the team no longer has the same relationship with Stewart-Haas Racing that it did last year due to the switch to Chevrolet, it’s hard to fathom why Almirola’s odds are so long despite the recent success of these chassis.
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Parker Kligerman Top 5 3-1 for 0.4 Unit at Caesars
Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bet: Aric Almirola Top 5 11-1 for 0.1 Unit at Caesars
