After last weekend’s event at Sonoma Raceway, the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season has nearly reached the midway point. We are 16 races into the 36-race schedule, and only 10 races remain before the playoffs begin. The drivers get an off weekend before returning next week in Nashville, so let’s break down the NASCAR Cup Series 2023 Championship betting odds to see how things have changed since the season began.
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NASCAR Cup Series 2023 Championship Betting Odds Update
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Odds
Breaking Down the Updated NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Odds
The Favorites
Chase Elliott, who began the season as the favorite, has seen his odds lengthen from 11-2 to 9-1. Elliott has missed seven races this year and is yet to lock himself into the playoffs, so backing him at such a short number feels, well, shortsighted. This number should continue to lengthen if Elliott remains without a win with the playoffs looming, so even if you want to buy him, I would hold on off in hopes of a better number.
Replacing Elliott as the favorite is Kyle Larson, who vaulted into the position shortly after his win at Richmond Raceway. Larson, and Hendrick Motorsports more broadly, have shown the ability to dominate at short, flat ovals in the new short-track package. That will give Larson a massive leg up in the Championship race at Phoenix, which is why we bought him at 7-1 in April. You'll now find him at 5-1.
Noteworthy trends include Larson's fellow Chevrolet drivers taking over the top spots behind him, with Kyle Busch and William Byron seeing their odds drop from 12-1 to 6-1 and 15-2, respectively. Larson's final Hendrick teammate, Alex Bowman, has seen his odds lengthen from 30-1 to 35-1, likely because of his three-race absence.
The Contenders
However, it hasn't been good news for everybody in the Chevrolet camp. Ross Chastain, who made it to the Championship 4 last season, has seen his odds lengthen from 10-1 to 16-1 as he remains without a win. The odds for his Trackhouse racing teammate, Daniel Suarez, have halved, moving from 50-1 to 100-1.
Two Toyota drivers, Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell, have also seen their odds shorten considerably, albeit at the expense of two other Toyota drivers, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. Hamlin has just one win this year and trails both Truex and Bell in the points standings, and his odds lengthened slightly from 9-1 to 10-1.
The odds aren't so great for last year's champion, Joey Logano, and the rest of the Ford camp. Logano and his Team Penske teammate, Ryan Blaney, have seen their odds shorten just barely from 12-1 to 11-1 despite both of them having one win apiece. Those two, along with Kevin Harvick, are the only Ford drivers with odds shorter than 20-1. Ryan Preece, Aric Almirola and Austin Cindric, all of whom race for the same team as either Logano or Harvick, own odds of 200-1.
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The Longshots
Some drivers who were seen as massive underdogs before the season began have improved their odds substantially. The RFK Racing duo of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher stand out in this regard. Although neither driver is likely to win the title, Keselowski, a former champion, has seen his odds shorten from 60-1 to 22-1, meaning he is now three times likelier to win the championship.
Unsurprisingly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has seen his odds double following his Daytona 500 victory. The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet will almost certainly make the playoffs by virtue of his win, and he even ranks 14th in points. He trails Reddick by only 20 points and has a 46-point lead on Bubba Wallace.
Rookie Ty Gibbs has also seen meaningful odds movement. Gibbs started the year at 60-1 but now slots in at 40-1. Gibbs is still yet to win a Cup Series race, but he drives for a top-tier team and ranks 18th in points, which puts him in shouting distance of this year's playoff drivers.
