BetMGM’s John Ewing posted earlier today that a staggering 99% of the bets on Anthony Edwards‘ points prop have come in on the over — clearly riding a way of momentum in the perception of Minnesota and its brightest star. It’s hard to argue given Edwards just dropped 43 on the Nuggets in Game 1 of the second-round series, and he has scored less than 30 only once all postseason.
But such crazy publish backing can only mean one thing: Odds movement the other direction.
For the record, BetMGM has taken this Anthony Edwards‘ points prop off the board — maybe because of the number of bets on his over, maybe because the Timberwolves have some serious injury questions with Rudy Gobert. It may come back up, though, and if the public keeps backing Edwards at this ridiculous rate, you’re bound to find some darn favorable odds on the under.
In the meantime, there are sportsbooks offering the same line of 28.5, and the under is +EV at two of them since they have said under at plus money. Clearly, DraftKings and Caesars Sportsbook are getting money on the over the same way that BetMGM has been throughout the day, as their odds of +110 are far more favorable than every other book’s odds of -102 or shorter.
Now, going with a bet just because the public isn’t is not inherently a good play. However, +EV bets are profitable long-term, and if 99% of the public is backing an over that only has a 51% chance of hitting, that is clearly overzealousness from the masses. Odds of +110 that have a 49% chance of winning are far more profitable, even if the Nuggets showed no signs of being able to stop Edwards in Game 1.
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Now, if Edwards drops another 40-spot on Denver, perhaps the public will look like the smart ones here. But our guy Loughy has explained well why unders are the way to go since the public always likes to be optimistic, especially with exciting, charismatic stars like Edwards.
The important thing here is keep an eye on Gobert’s status and BetMGM’s player props since both could dramatically impact profitability of wagers on Edwards tonight. Based on Ewing’s reports, however, if Edwards’ points prop goes back on the boards, chances are the under is going to have some serious plus money.
