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Final Four Best Bets: Final Four Predictions, Picks And More

March Madness action continues on Saturday with a two-game slate of NCAA Tournament action. This article will examine the best bets for Saturday and offer professional opinions and evaluations to assist you in making wise and well-informed betting choices, with the aid of OddsShopper’s college basketball odds and best bets resources. Nonetheless, onto our Final Four best bets and Final Four predictions.

Final Four Best Bets & Final Four Predictions

Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State

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Winner of the South Region, San Diego State knocked off Charleston, Furman, Alabama, and Creighton to reach the Final Four. Likewise, Florida Atlantic won the East Region by defeating Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee, and Kansas State. Currently, Florida Atlantic sits as a two point underdog to San Diego State in a game with a 131.5 total. 

From a handicapping standpoint, this game requires a fine balance between efficiency metrics and strength of schedule. San Diego State played the more difficult competition during the regular season with the 35th most difficult schedule. Florida Atlantic played the 114th most difficult schedule in the regular season, but their tournament wins speak for themselves. 

With that said, Florida Atlantic does hold value as an underdog. This team holds a massive offensive efficiency edge, ranking 15th overall. San Diego State checks in 119th. On defense, both of these teams are elite, with Florida Atlantic ranking 20th and San Diego State ranking 14th. 

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However, this isn’t the first elite offense San Diego State has faced this tournament. Both Alabama and Creighton possess elite offenses behind strong strength of schedules. On the year, San Diego State does rank second in opponent three point defense. However, both Alabama and Creighton shot historically bad from beyond the arc.

Alabama went 3 of 27, while Creighton hit 2 of 17. Florida Atlantic ranks 18th in three point attempts and 44th in three point percentage themselves. With even a little bit of positive regression, they should be able to overcome a San Diego State offense that still almost lost to Creighton on their worst shooting performance of the year. 

If that doesn’t work, Florida Atlantic also scores well from the interior. The Owls ranks 38th in two point percentage and 11th in two point defense. San Diego State actually has a weakness inside, ranking 240th in opponent two point percentage. With Florida Atlantic also holding a rebound advantage, it would make sense for the Owls to keep 7-1 Vladislav Goldin on the floor as much as possible to exploit this mismatch. 

Bottom line here, a competitive game between two underseeded teams, taking the points with a Florida Atlantic team holding multiple advantages makes sense here.

Final Four Best Bet: Florida Atlantic +1.5 (-105) at BetMGM

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Miami vs. Connecticut

Winner of the South Region, Miami knocked on Drake, Indiana, Houston, and Texas in the most difficult path to the Final Four. Across the country, Connecticut took down the West Region with wins over Iona, Saint Mary’s, Arkansas, and Gonzaga. Here, Connecticut holds a 5.5 point advantage in a game with a 149.5 total. 

As far as Final Four teams go, Miami has a historically bad defense. The Hurricanes rank 198th in overall defensive efficiency, which includes the 246th ranked interior defense and the 134th three point defense. Unfortunately for them, Connecticut ranks ninth in overall offensive efficiency and 12 in defensive efficiency. 

Aside from a less difficult path to the Final Four, Connecticut holds multiple advantages here. The Huskies rank 61st in height, while Miami checks in 274th. More importantly, UConn has depth on the interior with Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. The Miami side relies solely on Norchad Omier, who has struggled with fouls in each of the last two games. This height advantage extends to rebounding as well, where UConn ranks second in the country and Miami checks in 63rd. 

If Miami does somehow find a way to neutralize UConn’s interior presence, the Huskies also rank 35th in three point attempts per game and 59th in three point percentage behind the shot making of Jordan Hawkins, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton. All three players shoot at least 36% from beyond the arc. Similarly, Miami also relies on their elite guard play.  Unfortunately for them, Connecticut also ranks 13th in overall three point defense. 

With a short spread and advantages across the board, backing Connecticut makes plenty of sense here.  

Final Four Prediction: Connecticut -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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