Before we get to this season’s WNBA MVP odds — with key info on Caitlin Clark, Breanna Stewart and more — it’s important to shape the conversation.
Last season’s WNBA MVP race was one of the closest in league history, with Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas, and A’ja Wilson all coming within just 13 points of each other in the league’s tiered voting system. Stewart ultimately won out with the award, with Wilson, who was the best player on the best team by record last season, surprisingly dropping to third place.
With just over 24 hours until WNBA tip-off, this is our ‘last call’ for futures and season-long bets. With that in mind, I wanted to take a quick scan over the best WNBA MVP odds for these three stars, as well as a few others, currently available at major sportsbooks. Let’s dig in with our WNBA MVP odds and picks.
WNBA MVP Odds
A’ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces
The 2022 WNBA MVP is the current favorite to win the award this year, with most books offering Wilson around even money. There’s good reason for this: As I said before, Wilson is the best player on the best team in the WNBA. The Aces are on an incredible run of dominance, and they’re not going anywhere. The Aces project to be the #1 team in the W again this season, and historical trends favor a player from the 1-seed winning the MVP.
Turning 28 during this August, Wilson is in the prime of her career, and I really think we somehow haven’t seen her best basketball yet. Many fans felt A’ja deserved this award last year, and I believe there’ll be a sentiment among voters that Wilson is due for a third MVP.
I’m backing the favorite here as my best bet. With most books currently offering Wilson at even money, I would strike at the +140 being offered by BetRivers now and look to add to my position on Wilson if we get longer odds on her during the season.
Best WNBA MVP Bet: A’ja Wilson (+140, BetRivers)
Breanna Stewart, New York Liberty
Breanna Stewart has a lot going for her as an MVP candidate. She’s the best player on one of the best teams in the league, she’s one of the most decorated players in women’s basketball history despite still being in the middle of her prime. She’s won the MVP multiple times. But interestingly, the biggest knock against her is that she’s the reigning MVP.
Only one WNBA player has ever won back-to-back MVPs: Cynthia Cooper, way back in the first two seasons of the league’s existence, 1997 and 1998. Voter fatigue is a much stronger factor among WNBA voters than their NBA counterparts, a trend well-supported by A’ja Wilson’s aforementioned third-place finish last season. I’m staying away from Breanna Stewart in this award race.
If you do want to take a position on her to hedge on A’ja, make it a small one, and bet at FanDuel who have Stewie listed at +800 with their WNBA MVP odds.
Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun
Alyssa Thomas was an absolute force-of-nature last season, doing a little bit of everything to keep Connecticut afloat after losing 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones in free agency to New York. While I still see Thomas thriving in her point-center role, I think her low scoring averages will continue to keep her away from the MVP award based on historical trends.
Add to this that the Sun are likely to be pushed out of a top 3 finish by the rising Seattle Storm, and I just can’t see Thomas being a real contender in the race this season. Thomas is +1000 or longer at most books, which feels super long for someone coming off a second-place MVP voting finish, but I don’t think it’s long enough for a large play. I’d play this for a sprinkle at most at +1200, available at FanDuel or ESPNBet.
Jewell Loyd or Nneka Ogwumike, Seattle Storm
Typically I would be scared away of betting on an MVP award for a member of a newly-formed super-team, but that hasn’t seemed to matter historically in the WNBA. Stewart won the award last season in similar circumstance, and Maya Moore, Sylvia Fowles, Candace Parker, and even Nneka Ogwumike herself have won the MVP playing with superstar teammates in the past.
I think it’s worth sprinkling Jewell Loyd (+2500, ESPNBet or FanDuel) and Nneka Ogwumike (+3000, DraftKings or BetMGM) to cover yourself in case the voters are particularly taken with the Storm.
Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever
In my opinion, a bet on Caitlin Clark winning the MVP is a donation. She’s among the biggest names in women’s basketball right now, and I think books are trying to take advantage of that by offering her at odds that are way too short considering the historical trends against Clark.
In 27 seasons, a rookie has only been awarded the MVP award once: Candace Parker in 2008. Parker was fittingly also the last MVP to earn the award with her team not finishing Top 3 in the league standings. Every MVP since 2009 has lead their team to a top 3 finish, with the MVP coming from the team with the best record in 6 of the last 7 season–Top 3 is just not a realistic outcome for the Fever this season.
A guard also hasn’t won the award since, fittingly, 2009, when Diana Taurasi won the award. As talented as Clark is, there’s way too much against her here. Save your money, don’t fall into this trap.
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For more WNBA MVP odds, information on Caitlin Clark or Breanna Stewart, and so much more, make sure to check out our home from WNBA coverage.
