The XFL closes out the regular season with another four-game slate. Two games will kick off on Saturday, then two more will play on Sunday. Here are the best XFL bets and predictions for Week 10’s action.
Best XFL Bets & Predictions | Week 10
Orlando Guardians vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Kicking off the final week of the season, the St. Louis Battlehawks are 9.5-point favorites over the Orlando Guardians in a game with a 47.5 total. This is a must-win game for the Battlehawks as they attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, this spread is too lopsided, with Orlando playing better of late.
The Guardians are a league-worst 1-8, but they have lost a slew of games by single digits, including five games by 7 points or less. Their last two losses were both by 2 points. Prior to that, Orlando defeated DC 37-36. There is a reasonable argument that Orlando could have won each of their last two games as well. Against Arlington in Week 8, it took five Orlando turnovers for the Renegades to win by 2. Similarly, it took a late pick-six in Week 9 for San Antonio to pull off the victory. Ultimately, this Orlando offense continues to be underrated in the betting markets.
On the other side, St. Louis has played well this year, with a 6-3 record. However, they just got demolished by Seattle 30-12 after barely defeating Las Vegas in overtime in Week 8. A.J. McCarron did not play in Week 8, but he did not make much of a difference in his Week 9 return.
Aside from recent play, this St. Louis team presents plenty of flaws. The team has allowed a league-worst 4.7 yards per carry allowed. They allow 3.2 sacks per game, which is second worst and only ahead of Orlando. In fact, St Louis ranks fourth in scoring this year, only 20 points ahead of Orlando on the year. While Orlando has played poor defense all season, St. Louis presents enough flaws for the Guardians to cover this bloated spread.
Best XFL Bet: Guardians +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
DC Defenders vs. San Antonio Brahmas
The DC Defenders have already clinched a playoff spot and are are 3-point favorites over the San Antonio Brahmas in a game with a 41.5 total. This game means more to San Antonio, who can clinch a playoff berth with a win and an Arlington loss. With that said, this game still matters to DC, with every single player attempting to leave this league for the NFL in eventuality. This point should keep every roster motivated throughout every single game and snap.
With the assumption that the Defenders will play to their full potential, this line is not wide enough. However, the total stands out given DC’s recent collapse on defense. At this point, the Defenders are allowing 7.4 yards per pass, which ranks second worst in the XFL. San Antonio only passed 57.7% of the time (fifth), but Jack Coan is fresh off his best game of the year, where he passed for 302 yards. DC has now allowed at least 26 points in four straight games and at least 18 in seven straight. Most recently, Arlington’s lowest-scoring offense on the year put up 26 points against this defense.
On the other side, DC has still been able to score themselves. The Defenders have put up at least 28 points in seven straight games, going over 30 points in five of those. The Brahmas play above-average defense, allowing 6.1 yards per pass (2nd) and 3.9 yards per rush (third). However, they have played an easier schedule and are yet to face the league’s best offense in DC. As long as the Defenders give this game their all, the total should be north of 41.5 points. For those looking at the spread, DC also looks enticing at the current number of -3.
Best XFL Bet: Over 41.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Houston Roughnecks vs. Arlington Renegades
The Houston Roughnecks are 1-point underdogs to the Arlington Renegades in a contest with a 42.5 total. Arlington barely beat the Guardians 18-16 last week to keep their playoff hopes alive. They currently need a win to punch their playoff ticket. Meanwhile, Houston defeated Las Vegas last week despite its offense completely sputtering.
The Roughnecks managed 28 points last week, but they had been held below 20 points in three of their prior four games. Counter to their offensive struggles, the Houston defense has played well. This unit ranks in the top of both yards per attempt allowed through the air and on the ground. This defense now faces an Arlington offense that has scored the fewest points in the XFL.
While the Arlington offense does look improved with the transition to Luis Perez under center, his two starts with the team came against the two worst defenses in the XFL. Arlington has only eclipsed 20 points once all season, and that came against DC last week. Conversely, Arlington has played solid defense. The team ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt allowed and first in yards per rush attempt allowed. With Houston struggling, this defense should be able to hold the Roughnecks in check and keep this total below 42.5 points.
Best XFL Bet: Under 42.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Las Vegas Vipers vs. Seattle Sea Dragons
The Las Vegas Vipers will attempt to play spoiler against a Seattle Sea Dragons team that needs a win to clinch their spot in the playoffs. With that said, Vegas is still a 9-point underdog in a game with a 47 total. The Vipers have improved since a quarterback shift to Jalan McClendon. Still, this Seattle team has played some of its best football of late. Instead of making a play on the spread, over 47 points looks like the sharpest play.
McClendon has strong dual-threat ability, and he has completed 66.7% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt. Both efficiency metrics are above average. Vegas has also scored at least 17 points in three straight games, and this competition included Houston and San Antonio, who have two of the better defenses in this league.
On the other side, the Seattle offense has been on a complete warpath. This team now ranks third in points, having scored at least 30 points in their last two games. They have also scored at least 20 in their last five games. They face a Vegas defense that ranks sixth in yards per pass attempt allowed and seventh in yards per rush attempt allowed. With Ben DiNucci and company firing on all cylinders, Vegas just needs to do their part and score enough points to eclipse 47 here.
Best XFL Bet: Over 47 (-110) at BetMGM
