Parlays dominate the sports-betting landscape because of their jackpot-like payouts, but most are mathematical traps. Every winning bettor treats parlays as equations, not guesses. The key is using an EV parlay strategy and the right parlay tool to identify positive expected value across multiple legs. That’s exactly what Portfolio EV does, helping bettors build smarter combinations, calculate edge automatically and learn how to win parlays consistently. If you want to turn big odds into long-term profit, you need to right tools as you build the best parlay bets today.
How to Find the Best Parlay Bets Today Using Expected Value (EV)
Portfolio EV helps you grow your bankroll and maximize long-term profits with ease. Start unlocking more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page to get started!
Understanding Expected Value (EV) in Parlays
The Simple EV Formula
At its core, EV measures your long-term profit expectation per dollar wagered:
EV = (Win Probability × Profit If Win) − (Loss Probability × Stake)
If a bet’s EV is positive, you’re getting the better end of the deal.
Why Parlays Multiply Risk (and the House Edge)
A two-leg parlay multiplies both your odds and your probabilities. For example:
- Each leg at −110 has implied win prob ≈ 52.4%.
- Both winning = 0.524 × 0.524 ≈ 27.5%.
- True odds equivalent ≈ +263 but books often pay closer to +260.
That small difference is the sportsbook’s compounded vig. The more legs you add, the more that hold compounds.
Most bettors underestimate how much the hold balloons in parlays: You think you’re betting $80, but you’ve actually risked $229. The hold compounds.
How to Spot a +EV Parlay
The secret to a profitable parlay is edge stacking.
- Step 1: Find +EV legs. Estimate your own true probabilities (from data, projections, models).
- Step 2: Compare to the book’s implied probabilities. If your estimate > implied, it’s +EV.
- Step 3: Combine only +EV legs. Avoid mixing in neutral or –EV bets.
- Step 4: Compute joint win probability. Multiply or adjust for correlation.
- Step 5: Calculate total EV. Use the EV formula for the whole parlay.
Example:
Two legs at −110 with true win prob 55% → joint prob = 0.55 × 0.55 = 30.25%.
Payout ≈ +265; stake $100.
EV = (0.3025 × 265) − (0.6975 × 100) = +10.4% EV.
That edge exists because your model is more accurate than the market’s price.
Portfolio EV: Turning Parlays into Investments
Portfolio EV treats your tickets like an investment portfolio, measuring expected value across all combinations. Instead of guessing which single parlay will hit, you track the long-term profitability of dozens of combinations with small edges.
Why It Works:
- Aggregates edge: Individual bets may have tiny advantages; combining many creates measurable expected profit.
- Quantifies risk/variance: Helps you size parlays responsibly.
- Highlights correlation: Avoids over-counting value on linked outcomes.
With Portfolio EV, you stop chasing parlays and start identifying statistically favorable combinations.
How to Beat the Books With Parlays
Sportsbook prices reflect collective information. To beat them, you must locate small inefficiencies like off-market props, mispriced player totals or correlated legs not fully adjusted by the book.
Portfolio EV translates that logic into practice:
- It quantifies how much edge each leg contributes.
- It ranks combinations by total EV.
- It allows disciplined bettors to scale only those combinations where the math supports it.
That’s how professionals find the best parlay bets today, not by guessing outcomes but by systematically searching for positive expectation.
The Takeaway
- Parlays amplify both reward and risk.
- Without +EV legs, the math guarantees long-term losses.
- Portfolio EV turns subjective “fun bets” into measurable, data-driven wagers.
- Track your portfolio, manage variance and focus on expected value.
With the right data and discipline, you can finally make the math of parlays work for you instead of against you.
