A new month means a fresh slate of value on Thursday, with a couple of earlier games on the docket. Despite another 1-2 night, we are 5-4 over the last three days. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data and the first-inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks today for Thursday, Sept. 1.
Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Bets 9/1
Dodgers at Mets YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
This was on the losing ticket last night but attacking the same play with a lesser pitching matchup tonight is the goal. Chris Bassitt and Clayton Kershaw will square off at Citi Field with plus money still available for a run in the first inning. This is not the caliber of matchup that we all saw last night, as Kershaw has surrendered a first-inning run in two of his last four road starts. Bassitt has been fortunate to run a scoreless streak of home starts, but the caliber of hitting is significantly less than what he faces tonight. Teams like the Rockies, Reds, slumping Padres and the Marlins are all abysmal on the road.
The Dodgers are second best in baseball averaging .62 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road and Bassitt’s one area of weakness or non-strength is a moderate K rate. The Mets are second in the league averaging .78 RPFI at home despite that number dipping a little over the past week. These are still two dangerous lineups that should be closer to even-money for a YRFI play.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Dodgers at Mets YRFI (+115 BetMGM)
Brewers at Diamondbacks YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
Arizona was pounded into oblivion last night but remains home to welcome in the Brewers. Milwaukee is in the bottom tier of RPFI on the road, averaging just .38 on the season. They face Merrill Kelly who isn’t blowing back batters with a high K rate but he is keeping them off the basepath. Brandon Woodruff has the K rate — 29.6% — and faces a Diamondbacks team that was stalled after hitting well in two games against the Phillies. Arizona isn’t bad, just not great, in first-inning scoring, averaging .54 RPFI on the year. Both pitchers are hitting respective strides with neither having an ERA over 3.00 in 11 straight starts.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Brewers at Diamondbacks NRFI (-145 BetMGM)
Rangers at Red Sox YRFI/NRFI Pick | RISK FREE BET up to $1,000
The stark reality of how bad things are for both the Red Sox and Rangers doesn’t tell the entire story of the two pitchers tonight. Both Glenn Otto and Rich Hill are trying to distance themselves from earlier issues or just their team falling apart. Otto comes in after a tremendous August, holding teams to just 10 ER over 27.6 innings. Cutting his ERA nearly in half for just the month but still an impressive streak of pitching. Hill just suffocated the Rays holding them scoreless through seven innings, striking out 11 batters in the process. This is positive individual momentum that’s taken into a game where neither team is hitting well enough to counter. The Red Sox are one of baseball’s worst teams at home, scoring just .37 RPFI. The Rangers are a tad better on the road but still not great with a .46 RPFI average on the road.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Rangers at Red Sox NRFI (+100 BetMGM)
