After a boring Thursday slate, the MLB returns in full force with a busy Friday card. With most action getting underway in the evening, let’s get action on some MLB player props, including two home run picks and one bet from our MLB betting model. If you haven’t tried out the +EV betting tools I’ve been using to pay my rent for the last few months, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our MLB betting tools, including our MLB weather report, or our other MLB articles! Also, our guides about +EV MLB betting, MLB player prop strategy and home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, May 3
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Washington Nationals continue to disrespect veteran LHP Patrick Corbin by trotting him out on the bump. Corbin’s bloated 6.82 ERA is bad. His 6.59 xERA (4th percentile) is just as awful. Opposing batters sport a .335 xBA against him. If the results hold, this will mark Corbin’s fourth consecutive season with an xERA in the bottom 10 percent of the league or worse.
But if the Nationals keep letting Corbin take the bump, we’re backing opposing batsmen. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stands out as a sharp option on today’s slate. The superstar slugger is slashing a somewhat underwhelming .231/.336/.347 this year, but his .274 xBA (75th percentile) and .459 xSLG (75th percentile) suggest those numbers should tick up soon.
This matchup isn’t perfect for Guerrero. His slash line of .286/.444/.286 against LHPs leaves something to be desired, but he slashed a slightly better .284/.403/.363 against them last season. This won’t be Guerrero’s first meeting with Corbin — he has one base hit across three at-bats.
While Guerrero’s production against Corbin and LHPs isn’t all that impressive, we can get him to record multiple bases for odds of -105 on DraftKings. We’ll cash this ticket if he gets two base hits, a double, triple or home run against Corbin, and even if he only manages one base hit, he’ll see the sixth-worst bullpen by total hits allowed (115) after Corbin exits.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at DraftKings & Home Run +400 Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Vladimir Guerrero Jr. total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jose Soriano
The Los Angeles Angels will visit the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and it’s RHP Jose Soriano taking the mound for them. Soriano isn’t having a great year. He sports a 4.76 ERA and 5.45 xERA (15th percentile). His 23% strikeout rate (50th percentile) is at least average, but our MLB betting model recommends fading him on the strikeout markets. The Cleveland team he’ll face ranks eight in strikeouts taken per game (7.6). The odds at SuperBook and Fliff have a ton of positive expected value (+EV):
As the model reveals, the -109 at SuperBook and -110 at Fliff are beating the market by a meaningful amount. No other public books list this bet for any shorter than -122. Most are at -125 or longer. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is at -142.
So how does our model draw that conclusion? It draws in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and other factors; then generates a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it. For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. Make sure to use promo code “POSITIVE” to get your first week or month for 50% off (the regular prices are $14.95 and $49.95)!
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jose Soriano Under 4.5 Total Strikeouts -109 at SuperBook
For the best price currently available, check out our Jose Soriano total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Matt Olson
Tonight’s late slate brings an exciting battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers will start RHP Gavin Stone today, and while he has only given up one home run in five starts this year, he coughed up eight in eight starts last year.
Matt Olson clocks in at friendly odds to go yard at FanDuel today, with the sportsbook pricing him at just +360. Every other public book lists Olson for +310 or shorter. Pinnacle has him priced down at +223. While this odds disparity doesn’t guarantee he’ll go yard, it suggests a bet at FanDuel is a profitable one over the long term.
Several of the projections-based factors I consider (check out my home run betting strategy guide for more) are in play here, too. Olson may only have three home runs this year, but four of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. His average exit velocity of 94.7 mph (98th percentile) shows the power is still there. The MLB weather report even calls for good conditions and 10 mph winds blowing out!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run +360 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, check out our Matt Olson total home runs live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
