MLB Home Run Picks Today: Best HR Bets for August 25, 2026
On the board today: Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Rice, Cal Raleigh head the hitters the market prices likeliest to go deep. The full board and the matchup behind each price are below.
This is an information board: every hitter's best "to hit a home run" price and the book paying the most across 20+ sportsbooks and exchanges, alongside the real expert picks you can tail. We are not crowning a staff play. The market's shortest price today belongs to Yordan Alvarez at +264 (27.5% implied), the likeliest bat to go yard, which is not the same as the best value. Line shop the number, then confirm it beats the true odds in Portfolio EV. Start on the OddsShopper home run board.
OddsShopper's live board is showing 10 +EV bets right now— every one clears a +3% edge over the fair price with at least 3 books quoting the same line. Unlock every edge with OS Pro — 20% off with code HOMER20
Where the Best Home Run Prices Are
The board below lists the top hitters' to-homer props with the best price and book on each, compared across 100+ sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Some of the best numbers here come from exchanges like Kalshi and ProphetX, which we shop right alongside the traditional books. The shortest price just means the market rates that hitter likeliest to go yard — it is NOT the best bet by default. Pick the side you like, then take the best number: the same prop can pay markedly more at one book than another, and over a season that line-shopping gap is real money. Whether a given price actually beats the true odds is what Portfolio EV is for.
The Home Run Board, Ranked by Price
| Player | Opposing SP | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Park (HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | Will Warren | +264 | NoVig | 27.5% | 114 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Bryce Elder | +270 | ProphetX | 27.0% | 103 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | Gage Jump | +285 | NoVig | 26.0% | 96 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | George Kirby | +286 | Polymarket 🎁 | 25.9% | 93 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | Ethan Pecko | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 114 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | Aaron Nola | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 93 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | Ethan Pecko | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 114 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | Tyler Glasnow | +398 | Kalshi | 20.1% | 103 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Brandon Pfaadt | +397 | ProphetX | 20.1% | 102 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | Jackson Jobe | +400 | NoVig | 20.0% | 94 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | Max Scherzer | +400 | Unibet | 20.0% | 103 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | Bryce Elder | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 103 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | Jacob deGrom | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 101 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | Brady Singer | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 90 |
| Carter Jensen (KC) | Max Scherzer | +419 | BookMaker | 19.3% | 103 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | Gage Jump | +431 | ProphetX | 18.8% | 96 |
Today's ballpark factors
Park is the single biggest environmental lever on home runs (100 = league average), and it is context for the prices, not an edge on top of them (the books price the park in). HR-friendly today: Yankee Stadium (114); suppressing HR today: Sutter Health Park (96), Comerica Park (94), T-Mobile Park (93), Oracle Park (90). On an extreme-heat or high-wind day, game-time weather can override the static number, so read these as why the prices look the way they do, not as a reason to bet.
The Matchups Behind the Board
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) at +264
Yordan Alvarez owns the slate's shortest to-homer price at +264 (27.5% implied), in against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium is an elite HR park (114 HR factor). NoVig posts the top number — but the shortest price is the market's read, not a free lunch, so confirm it beats the true odds before you back it. The profile backs the price: 17.3% barrel rate, .674 xSLG, 53% hard-hit. Opposing starter contact quality: 8.0% barrels allowed, .427 xSLG allowed.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at +270
At +270 (27.0% implied), Shohei Ohtani is ProphetX's best home run number on the board, in against Bryce Elder at Truist Park. Truist Park is a slightly hitter-friendly park (103 HR factor). The batted-ball profile is real: 16.4% barrel rate, .573 xSLG, 53% hard-hit. On the mound side, Bryce Elder sits at 6.5% barrels allowed, .396 xSLG allowed this season.
Byron Buxton (MIN) at +285
Gage Jump draws Byron Buxton at Sutter Health Park, a matchup the market prices at +285 (26.0% implied). NoVig posts the top number. The batted-ball profile is real: 15.8% barrel rate, .492 xSLG, 47% hard-hit. On the mound side, Gage Jump sits at 6.1% barrels allowed, .392 xSLG allowed this season.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) at +286
Kyle Schwarber's home run prop sits at +286 (25.9% implied) versus George Kirby. T-Mobile Park is a strong HR suppressor (93 HR factor). Polymarket has the best price. The batted-ball profile is real: 17.4% barrel rate, .501 xSLG, 51% hard-hit. On the mound side, George Kirby sits at 6.9% barrels allowed, .404 xSLG allowed this season.
Ben Rice (NYY) at +358
The board gives Ben Rice a 21.8% implied shot to homer against Ethan Pecko, or +358 at the best price (Polymarket, of 35 books). Yankee Stadium is an elite HR park (114 HR factor). The batted-ball profile is real: 14.8% barrel rate, .502 xSLG, 49% hard-hit. On the mound side, Ethan Pecko sits at .261 xSLG allowed this season.
Cal Raleigh (SEA) at +376
Facing Aaron Nola at T-Mobile Park, Cal Raleigh comes in at +376 (21.0% implied). NoVig leads the market. The batted-ball profile is real: 13.3% barrel rate, .378 xSLG, 37% hard-hit. On the mound side, Aaron Nola sits at 9.5% barrels allowed, .420 xSLG allowed this season.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code HOMER20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
Expert home run picks on today's slate
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- EdgeAI Plus on Tails likes Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+370). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on today's slate. EdgeAI Plus, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one sportsbook than another. Take the best number every time on the live home run board.
- Confirm it is +EV, do not just back the favorite. The shortest price is the market's favorite, not a guaranteed edge; a longer-priced bat the market is sleeping on can be the better value. Check the best price against the true odds before you fire.
- Size for variance. Home run props are longshots by design, so keep stakes small and play the long run.
Game-by-Game Home Run Picks
Want every hitter for a single matchup? Our per-game home run breakdowns list the full board for each game:
- Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals home run picks
- Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins home run picks
- Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run picks
- Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants home run picks
- Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels home run picks
- Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals home run picks
- Houston Astros @ New York Yankees home run picks
- Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays home run picks
- Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves home run picks
- Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets home run picks
- Minnesota Twins @ Oakland Athletics home run picks
- Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners home run picks
- Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres home run picks
- Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers home run picks
- Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox home run picks
More on this: MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · How To Bet MLB Home Run Props (And Find The Edge) · MLB Home Run Leader Odds: The Rockies Bat Kalshi Ignores · MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet: Kalshi & Polymarket Contracts (August 25, 2026) · MLB Home Run Parlay Today: A Lottery Ticket With An Opinion
