MLB Home Run Picks Today: Best HR Bets for August 8, 2026
On the board today: Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Willson Contreras, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper head the hitters the market prices likeliest to go deep. The full board and the matchup behind each price are below.
This is an information board: every hitter's best "to hit a home run" price and the book paying the most across 20+ sportsbooks and exchanges, alongside the real expert picks you can tail. We are not crowning a staff play. The market's shortest price today belongs to Kyle Schwarber at +240 (29.4% implied), the likeliest bat to go yard, which is not the same as the best value. Line shop the number, then confirm it beats the true odds in Portfolio EV. Start on the OddsShopper home run board.
Right now 7 MLB markets pay 5%+ better at the best book than the market's median price on OddsShopper's board — the same bet, paid better, just by taking the best number. Unlock every edge with OS Pro — 20% off with code HOMER20
Where the Best Home Run Prices Are
The board below lists the top hitters' to-homer props with the best price and book on each, compared across 100+ sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Some of the best numbers here come from exchanges like Kalshi and ProphetX, which we shop right alongside the traditional books. The shortest price just means the market rates that hitter likeliest to go yard — it is NOT the best bet by default. Pick the side you like, then take the best number: the same prop can pay markedly more at one book than another, and over a season that line-shopping gap is real money. Whether a given price actually beats the true odds is what Portfolio EV is for.
The Home Run Board, Ranked by Price
| Player | Opposing SP | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Park (HR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | Max Scherzer | +240 | Kalshi | 29.4% | 111 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | Michael King | +296 | Kalshi | 25.3% | 95 |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Brandon Pfaadt | +300 | Bet365 | 25.0% | 102 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | Gage Jump | +320 | Bet365 | 23.8% | 104 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | Gerrit Cole | +331 | Kalshi | 23.2% | 114 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | Max Scherzer | +351 | Kalshi | 22.2% | 111 |
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | Matthew Liberatore | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% | 98 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | Kyle Freeland | +353 | ProphetX | 22.1% | 98 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | Gerrit Cole | +377 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 21.0% | 114 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | Aaron Nola | +377 | ProphetX | 21.0% | 111 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | Robert Stock | +390 | Bet365 | 20.4% | 94 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Seth Lugo | +398 | Kalshi | 20.1% | 100 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | George Kirby | +398 | Kalshi | 20.1% | 93 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | Robert Gasser | +400 | PointsBet | 20.0% | 107 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | Gerrit Cole | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 114 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | Chase Burns | +425 | Bet365 | 19.0% | 102 |
Today's ballpark factors
Park is the single biggest environmental lever on home runs (100 = league average), and it is context for the prices, not an edge on top of them (the books price the park in). HR-friendly today: Yankee Stadium (114), Citizens Bank Park (111), American Family Field (107), Fenway Park (104); suppressing HR today: Petco Park (95), PNC Park (94), T-Mobile Park (93). On an extreme-heat or high-wind day, game-time weather can override the static number, so read these as why the prices look the way they do, not as a reason to bet.
The Matchups Behind the Board
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) at +240
Kyle Schwarber owns the slate's shortest to-homer price at +240 (29.4% implied), in against Max Scherzer at Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park is an elite HR park (111 HR factor). Kalshi posts the top number — but the shortest price is the market's read, not a free lunch, so confirm it beats the true odds before you back it. The profile backs the price: 16.9% barrel rate, .483 xSLG, 52% hard-hit. Opposing starter contact quality: 10.9% barrels allowed, .468 xSLG allowed.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) at +296
At +296 (25.3% implied), Yordan Alvarez is Kalshi's best home run number on the board, in against Michael King at Petco Park. Petco Park is a slight HR suppressor (95 HR factor). The batted-ball profile is real: 18.0% barrel rate, .699 xSLG, 54% hard-hit. On the mound side, Michael King sits at 8.6% barrels allowed, .409 xSLG allowed this season.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at +300
Brandon Pfaadt draws Shohei Ohtani at Chase Field, a matchup the market prices at +300 (25.0% implied). Bet365 posts the top number. The batted-ball profile is real: 16.6% barrel rate, .579 xSLG, 53% hard-hit. On the mound side, Brandon Pfaadt sits at 8.2% barrels allowed, .388 xSLG allowed this season.
Willson Contreras (BOS) at +320
Willson Contreras's home run prop sits at +320 (23.8% implied) versus Gage Jump. Fenway Park is a strong HR park (104 HR factor). Bet365 has the best price. The batted-ball profile is real: 14.5% barrel rate, .512 xSLG, 46% hard-hit. On the mound side, Gage Jump sits at 5.5% barrels allowed, .383 xSLG allowed this season.
Matt Olson (ATL) at +331
The board gives Matt Olson a 23.2% implied shot to homer against Gerrit Cole, or +331 at the best price (Kalshi, of 31 books). Yankee Stadium is an elite HR park (114 HR factor). The batted-ball profile is real: 15.5% barrel rate, .523 xSLG, 50% hard-hit. On the mound side, Gerrit Cole sits at 9.3% barrels allowed, .376 xSLG allowed this season.
Bryce Harper (PHI) at +351
Facing Max Scherzer at Citizens Bank Park, Bryce Harper comes in at +351 (22.2% implied). Kalshi leads the market. The batted-ball profile is real: 11.4% barrel rate, .509 xSLG, 45% hard-hit. On the mound side, Max Scherzer sits at 10.9% barrels allowed, .468 xSLG allowed this season.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code HOMER20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
Expert home run picks on today's slate
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Matt Olson Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+297) Bet now → DraftKings
- Michael Harris II Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+433) Bet now → DraftKings
- Luis Arraez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1060) Bet now → FanDuel
- Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+397) Bet now → DraftKings
- …plus 1 more on their full Tails card.
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on today's slate. BGrebbs, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one sportsbook than another. Take the best number every time on the live home run board.
- Confirm it is +EV, do not just back the favorite. The shortest price is the market's favorite, not a guaranteed edge; a longer-priced bat the market is sleeping on can be the better value. Check the best price against the true odds before you fire.
- Size for variance. Home run props are longshots by design, so keep stakes small and play the long run.
Game-by-Game Home Run Picks
Want every hitter for a single matchup? Our per-game home run breakdowns list the full board for each game:
- Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees home run picks
- Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers home run picks
- Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals home run picks
- Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals home run picks
- Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals home run picks
- Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants home run picks
- Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres home run picks
- Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins home run picks
- Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks home run picks
- Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers home run picks
- New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates home run picks
- Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox home run picks
- Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners home run picks
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies home run picks
FAQ
What is the best bet to hit a home run today? Kyle Schwarber has the slate's shortest price at +240 (Kalshi), so the market rates him the likeliest to homer. The table ranks the rest by price; line shop and confirm the number is +EV before betting. Who has the best home run props today? It varies by player. This page ranks today's home run props by price, and OddsShopper's odds comparison checks 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best available number on each one. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It is the over 0.5 home runs prop: the player hits at least one home run in the game. Prices and the best book differ by sportsbook, so compare before betting.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly; shop live prices on OddsShopper. Matchups via the MLB schedule. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
