MLB Home Run Picks Today: Best HR Bets for July 18, 2026
On the board today: Hunter Goodman, Shea Langeliers, James Wood, Shohei Ohtani, Junior Caminero, Ben Rice head the hitters the market prices likeliest to go deep. The full board and the matchup behind each price are below.
This is an information board: every hitter's best "to hit a home run" price and the book paying the most across 100+ sportsbooks and exchanges, alongside the real expert picks you can tail. We are not crowning a staff play. The market's shortest price today belongs to Hunter Goodman at +192 (34.2% implied), the likeliest bat to go yard, which is not the same as the best value. Line shop the number, then confirm it beats the true odds in Portfolio EV. Start on the OddsShopper home run board.
OddsShopper's live board is showing 9 +EV bets right now — every one clears a +3% edge over the fair price with at least 3 books quoting the same line. Unlock every edge with OS Pro — 20% off with code EVBETS20
Where the Best Home Run Prices Are
The board below lists the top hitters' to-homer props with the best price and book on each, compared across 100+ sportsbooks and betting exchanges. Some of the best numbers here come from exchanges like Kalshi and ProphetX, which we shop right alongside the traditional books. The shortest price just means the market rates that hitter likeliest to go yard — it is NOT the best bet by default. Pick the side you like, then take the best number: the same prop can pay markedly more at one book than another, and over a season that line-shopping gap is real money. Whether a given price actually beats the true odds is what Portfolio EV is for.
The Home Run Board, Ranked by Price
Today's ballpark factors
Park is the single biggest environmental lever on home runs (100 = league average), and it is context for the prices, not an edge on top of them (the books price the park in). HR-friendly today: Yankee Stadium (114), Coors Field (113), Fenway Park (104); suppressing HR today: Sutter Health Park (96). On an extreme-heat or high-wind day, game-time weather can override the static number, so read these as why the prices look the way they do, not as a reason to bet.
The Matchups Behind the Board
Hunter Goodman (COL) at +192
Hunter Goodman owns the slate's shortest to-homer price at +192 (34.2% implied), in against Rhett Lowder at Coors Field. Coors Field is an elite HR park (113 HR factor). ProphetX posts the top number — but the shortest price is the market's read, not a free lunch, so confirm it beats the true odds before you back it. The profile backs the price: 16.4% barrel rate, .466 xSLG, 46% hard-hit. Opposing starter contact quality: 9.1% barrels allowed, .456 xSLG allowed.
Shea Langeliers (OAK) at +240
At +240 (29.4% implied), Shea Langeliers is Unibet's best home run number on the board, in against today's starter. The batted-ball profile is real: 15.0% barrel rate, .514 xSLG, 45% hard-hit.
James Wood (WSH) at +255
J.T. Ginn draws James Wood at Sutter Health Park, a matchup the market prices at +255 (28.2% implied). Unibet posts the top number. The batted-ball profile is real: 22.6% barrel rate, .617 xSLG, 60% hard-hit. On the mound side, J.T. Ginn sits at 6.6% barrels allowed, .373 xSLG allowed this season.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at +275
Shohei Ohtani's home run prop sits at +275 (26.7% implied) versus Ryan Weathers. Yankee Stadium is an elite HR park (114 HR factor). Circa has the best price. The batted-ball profile is real: 17.2% barrel rate, .580 xSLG, 52% hard-hit. On the mound side, Ryan Weathers sits at 10.0% barrels allowed, .439 xSLG allowed this season.
Junior Caminero (TB) at +280
The board gives Junior Caminero a 26.3% implied shot to homer against Patrick Sandoval, or +280 at the best price (BetRivers, of 31 books). Fenway Park is a strong HR park (104 HR factor). The batted-ball profile is real: 13.6% barrel rate, .513 xSLG, 52% hard-hit. On the mound side, Patrick Sandoval sits at .357 xSLG allowed this season.
Ben Rice (NYY) at +290
Facing Emmet Sheehan at Yankee Stadium, Ben Rice comes in at +290 (25.6% implied). Unibet leads the market. The batted-ball profile is real: 15.5% barrel rate, .526 xSLG, 48% hard-hit. On the mound side, Emmet Sheehan sits at 9.7% barrels allowed, .399 xSLG allowed this season.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
Expert home run picks on today's slate
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
More from these experts on today's slate. BGrebbs, John the Bettist, Rounding Third post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one sportsbook than another. Take the best number every time on the live home run board.
- Confirm it is +EV, do not just back the favorite. The shortest price is the market's favorite, not a guaranteed edge; a longer-priced bat the market is sleeping on can be the better value. Check the best price against the true odds before you fire.
- Size for variance. Home run props are longshots by design, so keep stakes small and play the long run.
Game-by-Game Home Run Picks
Want every hitter for a single matchup? Our per-game home run breakdowns list the full board for each game:
FAQ
Who is the best home run pick today? Hunter Goodman has the slate's shortest price at +192 (ProphetX), so the market rates him the likeliest to homer. The table ranks the rest by price; line shop and confirm the number is +EV before betting.
Who has the best home run odds? It varies by player. OddsShopper's odds comparison checks 100+ sportsbooks so you always take the best available number on each prop.
What does “to hit a home run” mean? It is the over 0.5 home runs prop: the player hits at least one home run in the game. Prices and the best book differ by sportsbook, so compare before betting.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly; shop live prices on OddsShopper. Matchups via the MLB schedule. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
